碳减排和水生态承载双重约束下的江苏化工产业结构优化研究

STRUCTURAL OPTIMIZATION OF JIANGSU'S CHEMICAL INDUSTRY CONSTRAINED BY CARBON REDUCTION AND WATER ECOLOGICAL CARRYING CAPACITY

长江经济带作为重大国家战略发展区域,其生态修护和资源合理高效利用关系国家发展全局。江苏化工产业为污染密集型和资源消耗型产业,妥善处理产业发展和资源环境保护的矛盾,对推动长江大保护以及实现协同减排目标具有重要意义。以江苏省化工产业为研究对象,2017年为基准年,构建碳减排和水生态承载双重约束下化工产业结构多目标优化模型,运用NSGA-Ⅱ-VIKOR算法,探讨不同情景下江苏化工产业结构调整的路径。结果表明:1)相比低碳发展型、节水发展型和经济发展型情景,均衡发展型情景下江苏化工产业节约用水998.48万m^(3),碳排放强度年下降率为4.27%,产值年增长率达到4.73%,在实现水资源高效利用、碳排放强度显著降低的同时,兼顾经济高质量发展。2)化工产业结构仍需调整,具体为支持发展橡胶和塑料制品业,限制发展石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业,重点针对化学纤维制造业采取节水降碳措施。3)优化结果的实现需要能源消费结构向清洁能源方向优化调整,煤炭消费比重下降5.54%,天然气及电力等清洁能源上涨5.45%。4)水资源配置转移方向基本和产业结构调整方向一致,通过水资源分配优化可使石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业和化学纤维制造业分别节约9.8%和5.14%的用水量,并通过水交易市场转移配置到橡胶和塑料制品业。据此,建议提升区域生态承载能力,实现区域高质量发展;构建清洁高效能源消费体系,提升能源利用率;建设节水型产业发展体系,实现产业与水生态全面协调、可持续发展。

Yangtze River economic zone,as China's key strategic zone,is closely related to national development by its ecological restoration and resources use.Jiangsu's chemical industry,an intensive polluting and resources-depleting industry,needs to properly handle industrial development and resources&environmental protection,which is of significance to protect Yangtze River and realize carbon reduction.This paper establishes a multiple-objective optimization model of chemical industry under dual constraints of carbon reduction and water ecological carrying capacity,and applies NSGA-II-VIKOR algorithm to discuss the way to adjust Jiangsu's chemical industrial structure.Balanced development scenario,compared with low-carbon,water-saving and economic development scenarios,can save water of 998.48×10^(4) m^(3),reduce carbon emission intensity by 4.27%,and make GDP rising rate up to 4.73%on the basis of benchmark year 2017.Water resources are used efficiently and carbon emission is largely reduced,while economy gains high-quality development.Chemical industrial structure needs to be adjusted through developing rubber and plastics,limiting petroleum processing,coking coal and nuclear fuel processing,using water-saving and carbon-reducing measures in chemical fiber manufacturing.Optimization of chemical industry needs to promote clean energy and reform energy consuming structure,with coal use down by 5.54%and gas&electricity use up by 5.45%.Water resources allocation should be consistent with industrial structural adjustment,which can save water by 9.8%in petroleum processing,coking coal and nuclear fuel processing,and 5.14%in chemical fiber manufacturing,which can be transferred to rubber and plastics sector.This paper presents suggestions on increasing regional ecological carrying capacity to realize high-quality development,establishing clean energy consuming system to raise energy efficiency,developing water-saving industries to materialize a coordinated sustainability in industrial development and water ecology.