贸易开放对碳排放的影响效应研究——基于2010—2020年中国省际面板数据的经验估计

Study on the Impact Effect of Trade Openness on Carbon Emissions——Empirical Estimation Based on China's Interprovincial Panel Data from 2010 to 20201\TONG Bai-li,2\TONG Xin

在贸易开放和“双碳”目标背景下,将2010—2020年中国省际面板总体样本数据划分为贸易开放高水平地区和贸易开放低水平地区两组样本数据,通过固定效应模型和系统GMM估计方法,分别检验了两组样本中贸易开放对人均二氧化碳排放量和碳排放强度的影响。研究发现,贸易开放对中国碳排放具有显著的正向效应,贸易开放会增加碳排放,但贸易开放水平的高低对碳排放的影响存在显著差异,贸易开放低水平地区引致的碳排放要远高于贸易开放高水平地区。同时,无论是贸易开放高水平地区,还是贸易开放低水平地区,环境库兹涅茨曲线假说均存在;外商直接投资的流入有助于降低中国碳排放。研究结果对当前不同贸易开放水平地区之间如何在深化贸易开放的同时降低碳排放具有一定的政策启示。

In the context of trade openness and the"double carbon"goal,China's inter-provincial panel aggregate sample data from 2010 to 2020 are divided into two groups of sample data,namely,high-level trade openness areas and low-level trade openness areas,and the impacts of trade openness on trade openness in the two groups of sample data are examined through the fixed-effects model and systematic GMM estimation method.The impact of trade openness on per capita carbon dioxide emissions and carbon intensity in the two groups of samples is examined through the fixed effects model and the systematic GMM estimation method,respectively.It is found that trade openness has a significant positive effect on China's carbon emissions,and trade openness increases carbon emissions,but there is a significant difference in the impact of trade openness on carbon emissions,and the carbon emissions induced by regions with a low level of trade openness are much higher than those induced by regions with a high level of trade openness.At the same time,the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis exists in both regions with high levels of trade openness and regions with low levels of trade openness;the inflow of foreign direct investment helps to reduce China's carbon emissions.The results of the study have some policy implications on how to reduce carbon emissions while deepening trade openness among regions with different levels of trade openness.