2024年2月全球传染病事件风险评估

Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in February 2024

目的 对2024年2月中国境外发生的全球传染病事件进行监测,评估对我国的输入风险和海外旅行风险。方法 运用多种来源的互联网开源情报信息,对重点关注传染病开展基于事件的监测,并采用风险矩阵法,从传播可能性和后果严重性两个维度,整合疾病、国家和事件特异性指标构建指标体系,对传染病境外输入风险和海外旅行风险开展评估。结果 2024年2月监测到13种传染病在全球30个国家形成突发事件或暴发疫情。对我国的输入风险方面,中风险事件9个;海外旅行风险方面,高风险事件23个,中风险事件9个。结论 建议一般关注孟加拉国、斯里兰卡和泰国的登革热,柬埔寨的猴痘,埃塞俄比亚、肯尼亚和坦桑尼亚的霍乱,巴西的基孔肯雅热和意大利的西尼罗病毒病可能带来的输入风险。建议出国旅行者重点关注北美洲、南美洲及亚洲登革热疫情;非洲国家霍乱、猴痘、黄热病疫情和南美洲基孔肯雅热疫情,一般关注柬埔寨、巴拿马的猴痘,尼日利亚的脊髓灰质炎,尼日利亚、圭亚那和利比亚的拉沙热,孟加拉国的尼帕病毒病,阿根廷的西方马脑炎,美国腺鼠疫事件可能带来的感染风险。

Objective To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside China's Mainland in February 2024 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the Internet,this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-,country-and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.Results In February 2024,13 infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 30 countries worldwide.In terms of importation risk to China,there are 9 medium-risk events;in terms of international travel risk,there are 23 high-risk events and 9 medium-risk events.Conclusion It is recommended to pay moderate attention to the possible importation risk posed by Dengue fever in Sri Lanka,Bangladesh and Thailand,Mpox in Cambodia,Cholera in Ethiopia,Kenya and Tanzania,Chikungunya fever in Brazil,West Nile virus in Italy.International travelers are advised to focus on dengue fever in North and South American and Asian countries and cholera,mpox and Yellow fever in African countries,chikungunya fever in South American and to pay moderate attention to the possible risk of infection posed by mpox in Cambodia and Panama,polio in Nigeria,lassa fever in Nigeria,Guyana and Libya,nipah virus disease in Bangladesh,western equine encephalitis in Argentina,and pestis in the United States.