环渤海地区港口效率的时空分异、未来趋势及驱动因素研究

The spatio-temporal differentiation,future trends and driving factors of port efficiency in the Bohai Rim region

采用超效率SBM模型、核密度估计、泰尔指数对2001—2020年环渤海地区港口效率进行测度和时空演化分析,并结合Theil-Sen中值趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验和Hurst指数进一步探讨港口效率的未来趋势,最后利用Tobit模型对港口效率的驱动因素进行识别。结果表明:①环渤海地区港口效率整体呈波动增长趋势,先后经历了快速增长和增长缓滞两个发展阶段;②环渤海地区港口效率的空间差异总体趋于缩小,“山东-津冀-辽宁”顺时针递减格局逐步衰弱;③环渤海地区港口效率的空间差异主要来源于区域内差异,而区域内差异主要由山东沿海地区内部差异造成;④未来,环渤海地区港口效率的空间差异存在再次扩大的风险;⑤港口功能、港口空间竞争和交通运输能力是驱动环渤海地区港口效率时空演化的主要因素,对外开放水平和腹地经济属于次要因素。

The super-efficiency SBM model,kernel density estimation and Theil index are used to measure and analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of port efficiency in the Bohai Rim region from 2001 to 2020.Further,the future trend of port efficiency is explored by combining the Theil-Sen median trend,Mann-Kendall test and Hurst index,and finally the driving factors of port efficiency are identified by using the Tobit model.The results show that:(1)The overall port efficiency in the Bohai Rim region shows a fluctuating growth trend,and has experienced two development stages of rapid growth and slow growth successively;(2)The regional differences of port efficiency in the Bohai Rim region are significantly reduced,and the clockwise decreasing pattern of"Shandong-Jinji-Liaoning"is gradually weakened,and the spatial distribution of port efficiency is more balanced.(3)The spatial differences of port efficiency in the Bohai Rim region are mainly from intra-regional differences,and the intra-regional differences are mainly caused by the intra-regional differences in the Shandong region.(4)In the future,there is a risk that the spatial difference of port efficiency in the Bohai Rim region will expand again;(5)Port function,port spatial competition and transportation capacity are the main factors driving the spatio-temporal evolution of port efficiency in the Bohai Rim region,while the level of opening up and hinterland economy are secondary factors.