2024年中国能源供需形势研判

Research on China's energy supply and demand situation in 2024

2023年我国经济回升向好,主要预期目标圆满实现,GDP增速为5.2%,在经济向好等多方因素的带动下,全国能源消费总量显著增长。展望2024年,在经济稳增长尤其是新动能产业带动下,能源消费总量将继续保持增长,预计在58.9亿~59.8亿t标准煤之间;高基数下能源消费增速将有所放缓,预期在3.0%~4.5%之间。能源消费结构方面,预期煤炭和石油消费量占比将有所下降,天然气和一次电力及其他能源的消费量占比有望实现增长。化石能源生产方面,2024年,煤炭产量将略有增长,达47亿~48亿t,进口量继续保持高位,预计超4亿t。原油产量将继续稳定在2亿t以上,超5亿t缺口仍需依靠进口。天然气产量增速将保持在6%的水平,进口量有望实现10%左右的增长。用电量方面,预计2024年我国用电增速在6%~7%区间,全社会用电量将达9.77万亿~9.87万亿kWh。

China's economy experienced a rebound and improvement in 2023,successfully achieving its main expected goals with a GDP growth rate of 5.2%.This growth was accompanied by a significant increase in the total energy consumption,driven by various factors including the improving economic situation.Looking forward to 2024,sustained economic growth,particularly in new energy industries,is expected to continue driving up total energy consumption to a range between 5.89-5.98 billion tons of standard coal.Despite a high baseline,the growth rate of energy consumption is projected to slow down,falling within the range of 3.0%to 4.5%.Regarding the energy consumption structure,it is anticipated that the proportion of coal and oil consumption will decrease while the share of natural gas,primary electricity and other energy sources will increase.In terms of fossil energy production,coal production is forecasted to experience a slight increase in 2024,reaching approximately 4.7-4.8 billion tons,with imports expected to remain high,reaching 400-450 million tons.Crude oil production is expected to stabilize at over 200 million tons,with a shortfall of over 500 million tons still reliant on imports.The growth rate of natural gas production is expected to maintain at 6%,with import volume anticipated to grow by around 10%.Concerning electricity consumption,it is projected that China's electricity consumption will grow between 6%and 7%in 2024,with the total electricity consumption in society reaching between 9.77 trillion to 9.87 trillion kilowatt hours.