欧盟碳边境调节机制(CBAM)对中国铝行业影响的分析

Analysis of the impact of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism(CBAM)on China's aluminum industry

欧盟碳边界调整机制(CBAM)将铝产品纳入碳关税征收范围,我国电解铝及铝产品产量占全球的一半以上,通过研究CBAM的征收规则,分析我国铝产品对欧盟的出口量,比较我国铝产品碳排放量和欧盟基准值的差异,对比欧盟碳市场和我国碳市场碳价趋势,分析CBAM对我国铝行业的影响。由于我国铝产品对欧盟出口量小,铝产品直接碳排放量低,目前的机制对我国铝行业的影响较小。长远来看,考虑欧盟逐步取消免费配额,存在将铝产品间接排放纳入CBAM的可能,我国碳价明显低于欧盟碳价等因素,需采取积极措施有效应对。

The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism(CBAM)includes aluminum products in the scope of carbon tariff collection.China's production of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum products accounts for more than half of the global total.By studying the CBAM collection rules,we analyze the export volume of China's aluminum products to the EU,compare the differences between China's aluminum product carbon emissions and the EU benchmark value,compare the carbon price trends in the EU and China's carbon markets,and analyze the impact of CBAM on China's aluminum industry.Due to the small export volume of aluminum products from China to the EU and the low direct carbon emissions of aluminum products,the current mechanism has a relatively small impact on China's aluminum industry.In the long run,considering the gradual cancellation of free quotas by the EU,there is a possibility of including indirect emissions of aluminum products in CBAM.China's carbon price is significantly lower than the EU's carbon price,active measures are required to effectively respond.