中国省域旅游经济韧性及影响因素分析

Analysis of China’s Provincial Tourism Economy Resilience and Its Influencing Factors

旅游经济具有高度敏感性、脆弱性特征,高水平的旅游经济韧性对抵御外来风险、维持竞争优势、促进旅游高质量发展具有重要意义。运用文献扎根分析法系统构建包括抵御能力、恢复能力、重构能力、更新能力4个核心范畴、11个主范畴和24个概念范畴的旅游经济韧性综合评价指标体系。采用纵横向拉开档次法和地理探测器模型对2017年至2021年中国省域旅游经济韧性进行测度与分析。研究结果发现,中国省域整体旅游经济韧性水平较低,两极差异明显;旅游经济韧性水平总体呈现东强西弱、南强北弱的分布特征,且由东南沿海向西北内陆逐渐减弱。随着时间推移,较低水平以下的省份数量增加,较高水平以上的省份数量在波动中也有所上升,区域差异随时间变化更为突出。创新能力、智力储备、地方经济基础、旅游经济基础、资金投入和人力资源是影响旅游经济韧性的主要因素。随着时间演变,创新能力成为首要影响因素,旅游设施逐渐成为重要影响因素,其次是地方经济水平和资金投入等因素。

As tourism economy has characteristics of great sensitivity and vulnerability,a high-level tourism economic resilience is important for resisting external risks,maintaining competitive advantages,and promoting high-quality tourism development.Using the literature grounded analysis method,this study systematically constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system of tourism economic resilience,which includes 4 core categories of resilience,recovery,reconstruction,and renewal abilities,11 main categories and 25 conceptual categories.This study measures and analyses the tourism economic resilience of China’s provinces from 2017 to 2021 using the vertical and horizontal scattering degree method and geographic detectors.The study found that:the overall tourism economic resilience of China’s provinces is low,with significant difference between the two levels;the overall spatial pattern shows the general characteristics of“great in the eastern regions and little in the western regions,great in the southern regions and little in the northern regions”,the level of tourism economic resilience decreases from the southeast coast to the northwest inland.With the passage of time,the number of provinces below the lower-level increases,above the higher-level also increases in fluctuation,and regional differences are more prominent over time.Innovation capacity,intellects reserves,local economic base,tourism economic base,capital investment and human resources are the main factors affecting tourism economy resilience.Innovation capacity has become the primary influencing factor over time,and tourism facilities have gradually become an important influencing factor.Then there are factors sach as the level of the local economy and capital investment.