长江经济带臭氧污染全域空间动态跃迁与局部空间驱动差异

Whole-domain Spatial Dynamic Transition and Local Spatial Driving Differences of Ozone Pollution in the Yangtze River Economic Zone

作为臭氧污染治理的重点区域,提升对长江经济带臭氧污染的时空变化认知和探寻污染产生的主要驱动因素成为实现协同治理的两大基础性关键问题。基于2015—2020年长江经济带各地市的臭氧浓度监测数据,运用探索性时空数据分析(ESTDA)研究长江经济带全域空间臭氧污染的特征与时空变化过程,应用面板分位数回归模型分析长江经济带臭氧污染格局变化背后的主要驱动因素,并进一步探究其局部空间的驱动差异,进而提升对长江经济带臭氧污染的科学认知。研究发现,长江经济带臭氧污染格局整体呈现东高西低态势,重污染区域由下游向中上游扩展;臭氧污染的空间相关性逐年增强,且呈现集聚与分异并存的空间演进特征;臭氧浓度的时空跃迁具有较强的空间依赖性,但整体呈现一定的转移惰性;地市空间尺度的臭氧浓度时空跃迁驱动类型存在差异。上海、长沙等中下游城市表现为开放-城镇化驱动型;贵阳、昆明等上游城市表现为科技-绿化制约型。从上游至下游臭氧浓度的时空跃迁呈现出“同向制约—逆向发展—同向发展”的递变格局。

As a key region for ozone pollution control,improving the knowledge of spatial and temporal variations of ozone pollution in the Yangtze River Economic Belt and exploring the main drivers of pollution generation have become two fundamental and critical issues for realizing synergistic control.Based on the ozone concentration monitoring data of cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2015 to 2020,exploratory spatio-temporal data analysis(ESTDA)is applied to study the characteristics and spatial and temporal changes of ozone pollution in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,and panel quantile regression models are applied to analyze the main drivers behind the changes in the ozone pollution pattern in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,and to further explore its local spatial driving differences,and then improve the scientific knowledge of ozone pollution in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.It is found that the ozone pollution pattern in the Yangtze River Economic Belt as a whole shows an east-high and west-low trend,and the heavily polluted areas are expanding from the downstream to the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt;the spatial correlation of ozone pollution has been increasing year by year and shows the spatial evolution characteristics of agglomeration and divergence;the spatio-temporal jump of ozone concentration has a strong spatial dependence,but the overall situation shows a certain degree of inertia in transfer;and the types of ozone concentration spatial and temporal jump drivers in the spatial scales of localities differ from those of the municipalities.The middle and downstream cities,such as Shanghai and Changsha,are open-urbanization driven;the upstream cities,such as Guiyang and Kunming,are science and technology-greening constrained.The spatial and temporal ozone concentrations from the upstream to the downstream show a pattern of“same direction constraints-reverse development-same direction development”.