基于Global Malmquist-Luenberger(GML)指数模型的物流业绿色全要素生产率测算分析——以2010—2020年京津冀13个城市为例

Analysis of Green Total Factor Productivity Measurement in Logistics Industry Based on Global Malmquist-Luenberger——Take the 13 Cities in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei from 2010 to 2020 as an Example

构建Global Malmquist-Luenberger (GML)指数模型对2010—2020年京津冀区域13个城市的物流业绿色全要素生产率(GTFP)进行测度,并对生产率变化、指数分解、区域差异、收敛性情况展开一系列分析。主要结论有:(1)整体来看,京津冀区域的物流业GTFP主要源于绿色技术进步(GBPG)驱动,GBPG累积提升约10.63%,绿色技术效率(GEC)下降明显;“十二五”时期的GML指数波动较大,“十三五”时期趋于平稳提升。(2)观测期内京津冀三地物流业绿色全要素生产率发展成效差异明显,仅河北实现了物流业GTFP提升,GBPG增长率高达25.18%,特别是张家口、邢台、衡水和秦皇岛四市在“十三五”时期已实现了GEC和GBPG双驱动发展;北京近年来物流业GTFP反弹提升明显,但GEC指数仍处于较低水平;天津的GBPG指数和GEC指数均有不同程度降低。(3)京津冀、津冀和河北城市组的物流业GTFP均通过了绝对β和条件β收敛检验,行政壁垒效应的存在导致三地收敛速度有所差异,河北城市组收敛速度最快,京津冀城市组最慢。

The Global Malmquist-Luenberger(GML)index model was constructed to measure the green total factor productivity(GTFP)of the logistics in 13 cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2010 to 2020,and a series of analyses were carried out on productivity change,index decomposition,regional differences and convergence.The main findings are:(1)Overall,the GTFP in the logistics in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are mainly driven by green technological progress(GBPG),with a cumulative increase of about 10.63%in GBPG and a significant decline in green technical efficiency(GEC);the GML index fluctuated greatly during the 12th Five-Year Plan period,and tended to increase steadily during the 13th Five-Year Plan period.(2)During the observation period,the development effect of green total factor productivity of logistics in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei was significantly different.Only Hebei realized the GTFP improvement of logistics,and the GBPG growth rate was as high as 25.18%.In particular,Zhangjiakou,Xingtai,Hengshui and Qinhuangdao had achieved GEC and GBPG dual-driven development during the"13th Five-Year Plan"period.In recent years,the logistics GTFP of Beijing has rebound and improved significantly,but GEC index is still at a low level.The GBPG index and GEC index in Tianjin decreased to different degrees.(3)The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Tianjin-Hebei and Hebei city groups all passed the absolute β and conditional β convergence tests.The existence of administrative barrier effect leads to the difference of convergence rate among the three regions.The Hebei city group has the fastest convergence rate,while the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei city group has the slowest convergence rate.