新疆农产品物流价格波动的影响研究

Study on the Influence of Agricultural Product Price Fluctuation in Xinjiang

目前,有关农产品价格的研究文献有很多,发现关于农产品物流价格波动造成农户收入波动问题的研究已经在行业内处于发展阶段,研究的理论主要有农产品物流价格波动的短周期的周期性、季节性、随机性、异常性,货币关系的超调性、工业化演进的阶段性等对农产品物流价格波动产生显著影响,结果偏向于农产品物流价格波动对运输成本、物流配送中心网点设定、运输体系构建、配送价格和物流效率对农民种植作物的积极性影响呈显著正相关,为今后农民规避风险、减少农产品和生鲜冷链物流运输成本提供建议。

There is a lot of research literature on agricultural prices,found that the fluctuation of agricultural products logistics price caused by the fluctuation of farmers'income is still in the development stage in the industry,the research theories mainly include the periodicity,seasonality,randomness and anomaly of the short cycle of agricultural product logistics price fluctuation,the overshoot of monetary relations and the stage of industrial evolution have a significant impact on the price fluctuation of agricultural products logistics,the main methods of the study are biased towards the VAR model to analyze the effect of agricultural products logistics price fluctuations on farmers'income,the results are positively related to the impact of transportation cost,logistics distribution center network setting,distribution system construction,distribution price and logistics efficiency on the enthusiasm of farmers to grow crops,for the future farmers to avoid risks,to reduce agricultural products and fresh cold chain logistics transportation to provide suggestions.