环境规制强度、FDI增长与出口技术复杂度提升--基于动态系统GMM与门槛模型的实证分析

Environmental Regulatory Intensity,FDI Growth and Increased Complexity of Export Technology--Empirical Analysis Based on Dynamic System GMM and Threshold Model

选取2010—2019年我国省际面板数据,综合运用系统GMM模型,检验出口技术复杂度、FDI以及环境规制之间的关系,并通过面板门槛模型实证考察不同环境规制强度下,FDI引致出口技术复杂度提升的阶段性特征。研究表明:总体上环境规制影响FDI的效应是正向且显著的,环境规制的强度不同,将导致“污染光环”“污染避难所”等现象;环境规制对提升出口技术复杂度,具有双重门槛效应并呈“U”型关系,其在不同强度下的作用效果取决于“成本抵消”与“创新补偿”效应之和;FDI对出口技术复杂度提升作用显著,作用效果受环境规制的影响;将环境规制作为门槛变量时,随着环境规制强度增加,FDI对出口技术复杂度提升形成“N”型双门槛特征;环境规制强度增加的范围必须适度,只有在一定范围内才能发挥促进效应的最大化。

This article selected inter provincial panel data from 2010 to 2019 in China and comprehensively applied the system GMM model to examine the relationship between export technology complexity,FDI,and environmental regulation,and to empirically examine the phased characteristics of FDI-led increased complexity of export technology through panel threshold model.The research shows that:Overall,the impact of environmental regulations on FDI is positive and significant.Different intensities of environmental regulations will lead to phenomena such as“pollution halo”and“pollution shelter”;Environmental regulations have a dual threshold effect on increasing the complexity of export technology and exhibit a U-shaped relationship.The effect under different intensities depends on the sum of“cost offset”and“innovation compensation”effects;FDI has a significant effect on increasing the complexity of export technology,and its effectiveness is influenced by environmental regulations;When environmental regulation is used as a threshold variable,as the intensity of environmental regulation increases,FDI forms an“N”-shaped dual threshold feature on the complexity of export technology;The scope of environmental regulation intensity must be moderate,and only within a certain range can the promotion effect be maximized.