高质量发展视角下产业结构高级化测算研究

Measurement in China’s High-quality Upgrading of Industrial Structure

在传统的产业结构层次系数中引入产业发展质量指数,构建兼备量与质的产业结构高级化测度方法,估算高质量发展视角下的产业结构高级化水平。基于测算结果,利用核密度估计法、Dagum基尼系数、障碍因子诊断模型,分析高质量发展推动下产业结构升级的动态演进规律,探究三大地带产业结构高级化水平的差异情况,识别阻碍产业结构升级的因素。研究发现:第一,全国与三大地带产业结构高级化水平呈上升趋势,东部绝对水平高于其他地带,中部平均增速最快。中部和西部产业结构高级化水平始终低于全国平均水平,省份间存在空间差异特征,大部分省份产业结构高级化水平低于全国平均水平,增速较低的省份主要分布在东部,地带间产业结构高级化水平具有显著差异。第二,全国和东部产业结构高级化水平具有分散趋势,存在一定程度的梯度效应和微弱的极化现象。中部和西部区域内出现水平极高值的可能性较高,特别是中部。第三,全国产业结构高级化水平存在不均衡现象,全国、东部与西部的区域内差异随着时间变化整体呈下降趋势,而中部呈现出先下降后上升的变化趋势,并在2017年超过东部成为差异最大的区域。地带间的产业结构高级化水平差异也整体下降,东部和中部之间的差距相对更大,地带之间差异的变化趋势有所不同。第四,外资依存度、保障水平是阻碍产业发展与产业结构升级的主要因素。

The quality of industrial development is introduced in the industrial structure hierarchy coefficient,a new measurement method of upgrading of industrial structure is proposed with both quantity and quality based on industrial structure hierarchy coefficient,and the level of upgrading of industrial structure is calculated under the perspective of high-quality development.Based on the results,further use kernel density estimation,Dagum Gini coefficient and obstacle factor diagnosis model carrying on the empirical analysis.The research shows that:First,the levels of upgrading of industrial structure in the whole country and three major regions show upward trends.The level of upgrading of industrial structure in the eastern region is higher than other regions,and average growth rate of the central region is the fastest.The level of upgrading of industrial structure in the central and western regions have consistently been lower than national average level,which indicate significant spatial disparities among regions.Most areas have lower level of upgrading of industrial structure compared to the national average level,and most areas with slower growth rate mainly concentrated in the eastern region.There are significant disparities in the levels of upgrading of industrial structure among different areas.Second,the distribution in the whole country and eastern region show the trends toward dispersion with certain degree of gradient effect and slight polarization phenomenon.The possibility of extremely high level is higher in the central region and western region,particularly central region.Third,there is an imbalance in the level of upgrading of China’s industrial structure.The overall trends of the country,the east region and the west region have declined,and the central region shows a trend of falling to rising.In 2017,central region exceeded the eastern region,and became the most imbalance region in upgrading of industrial structure.The disparity of upgrading of industrial structure among regions also declined.The disparity between the eastern region and central region is relatively larger,and the variation trend of disparity among regions is different.Fourth,foreign capital dependence and protection level are the main factors that obstacle the industrial development and the upgrading of industrial structure.