父母受教育程度对青年生育意愿的影响——基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据的分析

The Influence of the Parental Education Level on Youth Fertility Intentions:Analysis Based on Data from China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)

青年生育意愿减弱是造成当前“超低生育率”问题的重要原因,而青年生育意愿的形成深受父母个人特征的影响。基于此,运用2018年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,考察了父母受教育程度对青年生育意愿的影响机制。研究发现,父母受教育程度越高,青年的生育意愿越低;照料支持和“传宗接代”观念在父母受教育程度对青年生育意愿的影响过程中发挥了中介作用;经济帮助并非父母受教育程度对青年生育意愿产生代际影响的有效方式;相比于男性,女性的生育意愿更容易受到父母受教育程度的影响。在当前父母受教育程度不断提升的背景下,加强公共托幼服务,提供隔代照料津贴,培育积极生育观念和完善女性生育保障是提升青年生育意愿的有效政策措施。

The weakening of youth fertility intentions is an important cause of the current“lowest-low fertility”problem.The formation of youth fertility intentions is deeply influenced by the personal characteristics of their parents.Based on this,the study uses the data from the 2018 China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)to examine the influencing mechanism of parental education level on youth fertility intentions.The study finds that the higher education level of parents,the lower fertility intention of youth to have children;the childcare support and the concept of“carrying on the family line”both play a mediating role in the influence of parental education level on youth fertility intention;the financial assistance is not an effective way of intergenerationally influencing youth fertility intention by parental education level;and women’s fertility intentions are more likely to be influenced by parental education than those of men.In the current context of the continuous improvement of parental education level,the study believes that strengthening public childcare services,providing intergenerational childcare allowances,fostering positive concept of childbearing and improving maternity protection for women are effective policy measures to enhance youth fertility intentions.