PPP政策内容分析及其市场影响

Content analysis and market impact of PPP policy

PPP政策是政府治理PPP模式的主要工具,也是社会资本方制定PPP投资策略的指导文件.从政策文本内容及其市场影响两个角度出发,分析了2014年∼2021年我国中央层面的PPP政策文本.首先,构建了LDA主题模型对PPP政策进行主题演化分析,从主题发现、主题强度和演化趋势三个方面分析PPP政策的文本内容;其次,基于LDA主题模型结果及财政部PPP项目库数据,构建了多元线性回归模型进一步研究了不同政策主题对PPP市场的影响机制.从政策内容来看,PPP政策在文本设计方面存在主题分布不均衡的问题,并且呈现出一定的波动性和矛盾性;从政策的市场影响来看,激励性政策并未达到政策预期,且PPP市场对规范性政策更加敏感,社会资本方在进行投资选择时更倾向于监管规范、信息公开的PPP市场.

PPP policy is the main tool for government to govern PPP mode scientifically,and it is also the guidance document for private sector to formulate investment strategies and make decisions on PPP projects.This paper analyzes the PPP policy texts at the central level from 2014 to 2021 based on policy content and policy market impact.Firstly,based on latent Dirichlet allocation(LDA)model,a topic evolutionary analysis model of PPP policy documents is constructed to analyze the policy contents from three levels:topic discovery,topic intensity and topic evolution trend.Secondly,based on the results of the LDA model and the data of the Ministry of Finance’s PPP project database,multiple regression models are constructed to further study the effects of different policy themes on the PPP market.From the perspective of policy content,the PPP policy has the problem of uneven distribution of topics in the text design,showing certain volatility and contradictions;from the perspective of the market impact of the policy,the incentive policy has not met the policy expectations,and the PPP market is more sensitive to normative policies.Private sector is more inclined to the PPP market with strict management and information disclosure when making investment choices.