中国海洋渔业生态系统健康评价及动态演进

Health Assessment and Dynamic Evolution of Marine Fisheries Ecosystems in China

本文基于生态系统健康的基本逻辑与科学内涵构建评价指标体系,评价2008—2021年中国沿海11个省、市和自治区的海洋渔业生态系统健康及各要素层水平,借助传统与空间Kernel密度估计方法分析中国海洋渔业生态系统健康水平的分布动态演进和长期转移趋势。研究发现:在动态演化特征方面,中国海洋渔业生态系统健康水平随时间的推移提升效果显著,其内部各地区海洋渔业生态健康水平的绝对差异呈上升趋势,且极化现象存在加剧趋势。从各要素层分布曲线来看,海洋渔业生态系统活力的下滑制约了海洋渔业生态系统健康水平的提升;海洋渔业生态系统弹性的变化拉动了海洋渔业生态系统健康水平的不断攀升。在长期转移趋势方面,不考虑空间因素条件下,沿海各地区海洋渔业生态系统健康水平具有较强的稳定性与连续性,在3年的时间跨度内实现跨越式等级跃迁的可能性较小,且存在向低水平和高水平“俱乐部收敛”的可能性。考虑空间因素条件下,中国海洋渔业生态系统健康水平在空间动态条件下的演进趋势呈现“断层”现象。处于1.2~1.4临界级与良好级的相邻地区间存在趋同性,而处于0.6以下风险级与1.4以上良好级的地区不易与相邻地区发生空间关联作用。

This article constructs an evaluation index system based on the basic logic and scientific connotation of ecosystem health,measures the health of marine fishery ecosystems and the levels of various element layers in 11 coastal provinces,cities,and autonomous regions of China from 2008 to 2021,and analyzes the distribution dynamic evolution and long-term transfer trends of China’s marine fishery ecosystem health level using traditional and spatial Kernel density estimation methods.The study found that:in terms of the dynamic evolution characteristics,China’s marine fishery ecosystem health level over time to improve the effect of significant,the absolute differences in the level of marine fishery ecosystem health of the various regions within the upward trend,and the polarisation phenomenon there is a tendency to aggravate.From the distribution curve of Element layer,the decline of marine fishery ecosystem vitality constrains the enhancement of marine fishery ecosystem health level;the change of marine fishery ecosystem resilience pulls the rising of marine fishery ecosystem health level.In terms of long-term transfer trend,without considering spatial factors,the health level of marine fishery ecosystems in coastal regions has strong stability and continuity,and it is less likely to achieve a leap in level within a three-year time span,and there is a possibility of"club convergence"to low and high levels.Considering the spatial factors,the evolution trend of the health level of China’s marine fisheries ecosystem under the spatial dynamic conditions shows the phenomenon of"fault".Convergence exists between neighbouring areas at the critical level of 1.2-1.4 and the good level,while areas at the risk level of less than 0.6 and the good level of more than 1.4 are less likely to be spatially correlated with neighbouring areas.