民航业碳排放预测

Research on Carbon Emission Prediction in Civil Aviation Industry

近年来我国对民航业碳排放预测的研究逐渐增多,但还缺乏对现有成果的系统分析和总结归纳。在对八大行业碳排放预测文献统计的基础上,进一步从预测对象、预测年限、预测结论和预测模型角度对民航业碳排放预测相关文献进行了梳理分析。研究结果表明:目前我国针对民航业碳排放预测的对象主要有航空公司、航空器和民航业三类;关于航空器和民航业的预测成果较多;民航业碳排放预测年限以中长期时段较为适宜,并且应同时考虑时空因素的影响;民航业碳排放将呈现持续增长趋势;民航业碳排放预测模型应根据实践需要和研究目标选取,并对其进行优化改进以更好地应用于研究中。

In recent years,there has been a gradual increase in research on carbon emission prediction in the civil aviation industry in China,but there is still a lack of systematic analysis and summary of existing achievements.On the basis of literature statistics on carbon emissions prediction in eight major industries,further sorting and analysis of relevant literature on carbon emissions prediction in the civil aviation industry were conducted from the perspectives of prediction objects,prediction years,prediction conclusions,and prediction models.Discoveries:Currently,China's carbon emission prediction targets for the civil aviation industry mainly include three categories:airlines,aircraft,and the civil aviation industry.There are many prediction results for aircraft and the civil aviation industry;The prediction period for carbon emissions in the civil aviation industry is more suitable for medium and long-term periods,and the influence of temporal and spatial factors should be considered simultaneously;The carbon emissions of the civil aviation industry will continue to grow;The carbon emission prediction model for the civil aviation industry should be selected based on practical needs and research objectives,and optimized and improved to better apply in research.The in-depth research on predicting carbon emissions in the civil aviation industry is of great significance for promoting low-carbon development and achieving the"dual carbon"goals.