基于时间序列预测的城际出行韧性评估方法与时空格局

Evaluation Method and Spatiotemporal Pattern of Intercity Travel Behavior Resilience Based on Time Series Predictions

在不确定性成为交通运行新常态背景下,如何在抑制风险的前提下,提升城际出行韧性,掌握需求侧城际出行波动的时空格局对韧性交通建设具有重要意义。文章界定了城际出行韧性内涵,基于长时间序列城际出行数据和扰动事件一般属性构建了城际出行韧性测度模型,并以COVID-19扰动为案例,揭示了COVID-19三年以来的城际出行适应性格局与韧性时空格局规律。研究表明:1)兼顾季节性与节假日趋势所构建的城际出行韧性评估方法可以很好地揭示扰动事件影响下的城际出行波动时空格局。2)COVID-19疫情对城际出行的影响程度表现为全国大流行高峰期>奥密克戎高峰期>多点波动高峰期。城际出行强度随距离增加呈线性衰减趋势,每增加50 km的距离,3个阶段的城际出行分别要多损失0.86、1.03、1.15个百分点。3)全国大流行、多点波动和奥密克戎3个阶段居民城际出行平均距离分别缩短了52.55、65.31、105.16 km。4)城际出行韧性呈现多点波动时期>奥密克戎暴发时期>全国大流行时期,在时序上表现出城际出行韧性逐渐增加的趋势。同时,3阶段的城际出行韧性在空间上亦明显呈现出差异化空间分异和区域集聚特征。

With the rapid development of urban regionalization and networking of high-speed transport,intercity travel has increasingly played a key role in China's economic and social development and socioeconomic functional connections.However,amidst global change and uncertainty,the event disturbance-oriented theory and empirical research on intercity travel is still insufficient to improve the ability of transportation systems to cope with disturbances.Since uncertainty is prevalent in transport operations,improving Intercity Travel Behavior Resilience(ITBR)and grasping the spatiotemporal pattern of demand-side intercity travel fluctuation to restrain risk is essential for resilient transport construction.Based on related theories and analysis methods of spatial interaction and intercity travel,this study refines the definition of ITBR.A measurement model of ITBR was constructed based on long-term intercity travel data and the general properties of disturbance events.Furthermore,COVID-19 disturbance was used as a case study to reveal the adaptive pattern of intercity travel and the spatiotemporal pattern of ITBR over three years.The results show that the evaluation of ITBR based on seasonal and holiday trends reveal spatiotemporal patterns of intercity travel fluctuations influenced by disturbance events.The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on intercity travel is as follows:peak of the national pandemic>peak of the Omicron variant>peak of the multipoint fluctuation.The intensity of intercity travel decreased linearly with an increase in distance,and intercity travel during the three stages is lost by 0.86,1.03,1.15 percentage points,respectively,with an increase of 50 km.The average intercity travel distances of residents in these three stages were shortened by 52.55,65.31,and 105.16 km,respectively.The value of ITBR decreased from the multipoint fluctuation period to the national pandemic period because of the Omicron outbreak.Overall,ITBR showed a gradual increasing trend during the study period.Meanwhile,ITBR in these three stages was characterized by obvious spatial differentiation and regional agglomeration.Compared to existing research,this study further expands existing research focusing on intra-city travel behavior resilience by exploring ITBR on the regional scale.