现代央行制度下绿色金融赋能碳中和的传导路径及影响效应——基于动态SAR模型的空间计量分析

Research on the Transmission Path and Spatial Effect of Green Finance Enabling Carbon Neutrality Under the Modern Central Bank System—Based on the Dynamic Spatial SAR Model

健全绿色金融体系是构建现代中央银行制度的必然要求。本文依托2006~2021年浙江省11个地市空间面板数据构建动态空间SAR模型,从碳排放、碳吸收和碳赤字三个维度实证分析绿色金融赋能碳中和的空间效应及传导路径。结果表明:从空间效应看,绿色金融不仅可促进本地碳中和进程,还可推动邻近地区实现碳中和目标;且绿色金融的长期效应大于短期效应,直接效应大于间接效应。从传导路径看,绿色金融可通过提高科技创新能力、改善经济增长方式降低碳赤字水平,并通过增加陆地碳汇提高碳吸收水平。据此,提出绿色金融赋能碳中和的相关建议。

A sound green financial system is an inevitable requirement for building a modern central bank system.Based on the spatial panel data of 11 cities in Zhejiang Province from 2006 to 2021,this paper builds a dynamic spatial SAR model to empirically analyze the spatial effects and transmission paths of green finance empowering carbon neutrality from three dimensions:carbon emission,carbon absorption and carbon deficit.From the perspective of spatial effects,green finance can not only promote local carbon neutrality processes,but also drive neighboring regions to achieve carbon neutrality goals;the long-term effects of green finance are greater than the short-term effects,and the direct effects are greater than the indirect effects.From the perspective of transmission path,green finance can reduce carbon deficit level by enhancing technological innovation ability and improving economic growth mode,and can improve carbon absorption level by increasing terrestrial carbon sink.Based on the results,the paper puts forward some suggestions about green finance empowering carbon neutrality.