黄河流域发展质量综合评估及其主要障碍因子识别

Comprehensive Evaluation of Development Quality in the Yellow River Basin and Identification of Main Obstacle Factors

为了给高质量建设现代化黄河流域提供数据佐证和学理支撑,设置包括2个子系统(生态保护和高质量发展)共7个维度(资源利用、环境治理、环境质量、创新发展、协调发展、开放发展、共享发展)的黄河流域发展质量评价指标体系,采用反熵值法计算指标权重及各子系统综合指数,采用生态位适宜度模型评估2011—2020年黄河流域发展质量,采用修正的耦合协调度模型和相对发展度模型分析黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展耦合协调状况,采用障碍度模型识别黄河流域发展质量的主要障碍因子。结果表明:1)2011—2020年黄河流域发展质量整体上稳步上升,但研究时段末仍相对较低,还有较大提升空间;2)从黄河流域发展质量各维度生态位适宜度看,环境治理、资源利用达到中等适宜,协调发展和环境质量为低度适宜,共享发展属于低度不适宜,创新发展和开放发展属于中等不适宜;3)黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展耦合协调等级已由勉强协调上升到初级协调,二者一直处于生态保护领先的失衡或严重失衡状态;4)在发展质量的7个维度中,共享发展处于核心地位,开放发展、创新发展、协调发展是高质量发展子系统的短板,资源利用、环境质量是生态保护子系统的弱项。在评价指标中,技术市场成交额占GDP比重、人均进出口值、外资开放度、自然保护区面积占总面积比例、农业产业劳动生产率、城市土地节约利用水平、工业固体废弃物综合利用率是黄河流域发展质量的主要障碍因子。

In order to provide data evidence and theoretical support for the high-quality construction of the modern Yellow River Basin,the development quality evaluation index system for the Yellow River Basin was established,which included two sub-systems(ecological protection and high-quality development)and seven dimensions(resources utilization,environmental governance,environmental quality,innovative development,coordinated development,open development and shared development).The anti-entropy weight method was used to calculate the weight of the index and the comprehensive index of each sub-system,the niche fitness model was used to evaluate the development quality of the Yellow River Basin from 2011 to 2020,the modified coupling coordination model and the relative development model were used to analyze the coupling coordination status between ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin,and the obstacle model was used to identify the main obstacles to the development quality of the Yellow River Basin.The results show that a)the overall development quality of the Yellow River Basin has steadily improved from 2011 to 2020,but it is still relatively low at the end of the research period,and there is still significant room for improvement;b)From the perspective of niche fitness in various dimensions of development quality in the Yellow River Basin,environmental governance and resources utilization reach moderate suitability,coordinated development and environmental quality are low suitability,shared development is low unsuitable,and innovative development and open development are moderately unsuitable;c)The coupling coordination level between ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin has risen from forced coordination to primary coordination,and they have always been in a state of leading ecological protection imbalance or serious imbalance;d)Among the seven dimensions of development quality,shared development occupies a core position.Open development,innovative development and coordinated development are the weaknesses of the high-quality development subsystem,while resources utilization and environmental quality are the weaknesses of the ecological protection subsystem.In the evaluation indicators,the main obstacles to the development quality of the Yellow River Basin are the proportion of technology market transaction volume to GDP,per capita import and export value,foreign investment openness,proportion of nature reserve area to total area,agricultural industry labor productivity,urban land conservation and utilization level,and comprehensive utilization rate of industrial solid waste.