黄河流域未来陆地水储量时空演变趋势

Estimation of the Temporal and Spatial Evolution Trend of Future Terrestrial Water Reserves in the Yellow River Basin

在气候变化和人类活动影响下,流域水循环发生了显著变化,水资源保护形势愈加严峻。为解决黄河流域陆地水储量难监测的问题,利用GRACE数据和可变下渗容量(VIC)模型预测黄河流域2030—2100年陆地水储量变化,剖析气候变化对陆地水储量的影响机制。研究表明:1)利用GRACE数据和VIC模型通过组分相加法计算的陆地水储量变化一致性较强,能很好模拟黄河流域陆地水储量时空演变特征;2)2030—2100年黄河流域陆地水储量呈现不显著的增加趋势,SSP585情景陆地水储量的增加幅度最大;3)预测期黄河流域降水量、气温和蒸散发量均比历史时期上升,预测期黄河源区和兰州附近的径流深比历史期减小,虽然预测期黄河流域整体陆地水储量呈现不显著增加趋势,但仅内蒙古部分地区陆地水储量增加。

Under the influence of climate change and human activities,significant changes have occurred in the basin water cycle,making the situation for water resources protection increasingly severe.In response to the issues of water shortage in the Yellow River Basin and the difficulty in monitoring terrestrial water storage,this study based on GRACE(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment)data and the Variable Infiltration Capacity(VIC)model,estimated the future changes of terrestrial water storage in the Yellow River Basin and analyzed the impact mechanism of climate change on terrestrial water storage.The results show that:a)the changes of terrestrial water storage calculated by GRACE and VIC using the component summation method shows high consistency,effectively simulating the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of terrestrial water storage in the Yellow River Basin.b)From 2030 to 2100,there is a relatively insignificant increasing trend in terrestrial water storage in the Yellow River Basin,and under the SSP585 scenario,the increasing trend in terrestrial water storage is more intense.c)During the forecast period,precipitation,temperature,and evapotranspiration in various regions of the Yellow River Basin are all projected to increase compared to historical periods.However,runoff in the Yellow River source area and near Lanzhou is expected to decrease compared to historical periods.Although the overall land water storage in the Yellow River Basin shows an increasing trend during the forecast period,only the terrestrial water storage anomaly in Inner Mongolia is greater than 0.