青海电网新能源多尺度消纳规律及归因分析

A Study on the Multi-Scale Consumption Rule of New Energy in QinghaiPower Grid and Its Attribution Analysis

随着并网风、光装机的不断扩大,青海电网将面临日趋严峻的弃电问题。该文探索新能源弃电规律及影响因素,并提出大规模新能源消纳对策,对青海电网安全、高效运行具有重要的实践意义。首先,分析了青海电网近年来的运行状况,明确青海电网多尺度弃电规律及其原因;其次,解析了多个典型日电网实际运行过程,阐明青海电网发生弃电的影响因素,并采用局部加权散点平滑回归(LOWESS)方法,构建了弃电率与新能源出力和水电之间的函数关系;最后,提出了提升青海省新能源消纳水平的措施。

With continuous expansion of grid-connected wind and solar power generation installations,Qinghai Power Grid faces increasingly a severe electricity curtailment issue.This study explores the new energy curtailment rules and its influencing factors,and proposes large-scale new energy consumption strategies,which is of important practical significance for the safe and efficient operation of Qinghai Power Grid.Firstly,the paper analyzes the operating status of Qinghai Power Grid in recent years,and clarifies the multi-scale electricity curtailment rules and reasons.Secondly,several typical daily operation processes of the power grid are analyzed,and the influencing factors of the electricity curtailment in Qinghai are expounded.Furthermore,locally weighted scatterplot smoothing regression(LOWESS)is applied to fit the curtailment response function of the grid.Finally,the measures to improve the new energy consumption level of Qinghai Power Grid are proposed.