洞庭湖区生态经济系统时空耦合演变及驱动因素

Spatiotemporal coupling evolution and driving factors of eco-economic system in Dongting Lake area

统筹生态环境与经济发展是促进生态经济可持续发展的内在要求,对推动我国经济高质量发展具有重要的现实意义。本文分别从压力、状态和响应,以及水平、结构和效益3个维度构建生态环境与经济发展评价指标体系,运用耦合协调度模型、探索性空间数据分析法、标准差椭圆和地理探测器等方法,分析洞庭湖区生态经济系统时空耦合演变特征及驱动因素。结果表明:(1)2013—2022年生态经济系统耦合协调度呈现出稳定上升趋势,由0.3798增长到0.6348,空间差异显著,呈现出中部低、四周高的“盆地型”空间分布格局。(2)耦合协调度呈现出显著的正向全局空间自相关,且集聚性不断增强;局部自相关存在低—低和高—高2种集聚类型。耦合协调度的重心位置位于洞庭湖中部地区,并逐渐向西北方向移动。(3)生态弹性、经济发展、科学技术和政府调控是生态经济系统耦合协调度时空演变的主要驱动因素。

Coordinating the development of ecological environment and economy is an inherent requirement for promoting sustainable development of ecological economy,and is of great practical significance for promoting high-quality development of China's economy.In this study,the ecological environment evaluation index system is constructed from three dimensions of pressure,state and response,and the economic development evaluation index system is constructed from three dimensions of economic level,economic structure and economic efficiency.The coupled coordination degree model,exploratory spatial data analysis,standard deviation ellipse and geographic detector are applied to analyze the evolution of spatiotemporal coupling of eco-economic system and the driving factors of the Dongting Lake area.The results show that:(1)The coupling coordination degree of the eco–economic system from 2013 to 2022 shows a stable upward trend from 0.3798 to 0.6348,with significant spatial differences,showing a"basin-type"spatial distribution pattern with a low level in the central part and a high level in the surrounding area.(2)The coupling coordination degree presents a significant positive global spatial autocorrelation,and the agglomeration is increasing.There are two clustering types of local autocorrelation:low-low and high-high.The center of gravity of the coupling coordination degree is located in the central Dongting Lake area and gradually moves to the northwest.(3)Ecological resilience,economic development,science and technology and government regulation are important driving factors for the spatiotemporal evolution of eco–economic system coupling coordination degree.