基于突变理论的北海港通航安全评价

Navigational Safety Assessment of Beihai Port Based on Mutation Theory

北海港是我国沿海重要港口之一,也是华南地区主要的枢纽港口,随着港口货物吞吐量迅速增长,船舶密集程度日益增加,港口船舶引航风险不断加大.为降低通航风险,提升港口通航安全,基于突变理论辨析港区船舶通航安全风险源,构建港口船舶通航安全评价模型,可以有效减少评价指标的不确定性和受主观因素影响大的问题.以北海港为例,运用上述模型对港区通航安全进行安全评价,得到北海港的安全等级.研究结果表明,北海港通航安全等级为“比较安全”,评价结果与实际相符,从而验证了所提模型的科学性与合理性.

Beihai Port is one of China s important coastal ports and a major hub in the Southern China region.With the rapid growth of the port s cargo throughput and increasing ship density,the risks associated with pilotage and vessel navigation in the port area have escalated.To mitigate these navigational risks and enhance the port s safety,this study utilizes mutation theory to analyze the sources of navigational risks within the port area and develop an evaluation model for navigational safety of vessels in the port.This model effectively reduces uncertainty in the evaluation indicators and minimizes the impact of subjective factors.Taking Beihai Port as an example,the proposed model was applied to evaluate the navigational safety of the port area,resulting in an assessment of Beihai Port s safety level.The findings indicate that Beihai Port s navigational safety is rated as“relatively safe,”and the evaluation results are consistent with actual conditions,thus confirming the scientific validity and reasonableness of the proposed model.