咸海近20年的水文特征变化分析

Analysis of Changes in the Hydrographic Characteristics of the Aral Sea over the Past 20 Years

主要基于MODIS数据和DAHITI水位数据库,分析了咸海2000—2020年的水文特征变化,并对该变化的驱动力进行了探究。咸海近20年的水体面积持续萎缩,根据咸海水体面积的萎缩强度,可分为两个阶段:2000—2009年为咸海面积迅速萎缩阶段,共缩小了17.71×10^(3) km^(2),水量减少了67.94 km^(3);2010年后面积萎缩速度明显放缓,2010—2020年共缩小了7.4×10^(3) km^(2),水量减少了14.92 km^(3)。2000—2020年,北咸海面积变化较稳定,呈现缓慢增加趋势;东咸海面积变化趋势与咸海整体面积变化趋势基本一致;西咸海面积变化较为和缓,呈持续缓慢下降趋势。人类活动尤其是耕地和水库的扩张是咸海面积和水量持续萎缩的关键因素。

Based on MODIS data and the DAHITI water level database,this paper mainly analyses changes in the hydrological characteristics of the Aral Sea from 2000 to 2020,and explores the driving forces of the changes.The water area of the Aral Sea has been shrinking for the last 20 years.According to the shrinkage intensity of the water area of the Aral Sea,the shrinking process can be divided into two stages.From 2000 to 2009,the water area of the Aral Sea rapidly shrank,with a total shrinkage of 17.71×10^(3) km^(2) and a decrease of 67.94 km^(3) in water volume.After 2010,the shrinking speed of water area slowed down considerably,with a total shrinkage of 7.4×10^(3) km^(2) and a de-crease of 14.92 km^(3) in water volume from 2010 to 2020.From 2000 to 2020,the area of the north Aral Sea changed relatively steadily with a trend of slow increase,the change trend of the area of the east Aral Sea was basi-cally consistent with the change trend of the whole area of the Aral Sea,and the area of the west Aral Sea changed relatively slowly,with a continuous and slow downward trend.Human activities,especially the expansion of arable land and reservoirs,were the key factors of the continuing shrinkage of the area and water volume of the Aral Sea.