入侵植物薇甘菊在贵州的潜在适生区及其变化趋势

Suitable growth areas of the invasive plant Mikania micranthain Guizhou and its trends

【目的】薇甘菊是一种危害性极大的外来入侵植物,2016—2022年间,多次在贵州省发现其入侵种群。预测薇甘菊在贵州的潜在适生区及其变化规律,可对贵州薇甘菊防控体系建设提供依据。【方法】在全球筛选薇甘菊分布点1001个,结合22个环境因子数据,采用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)预测当前及未来气候条件下薇甘菊在贵州的潜在分布情况,并进行主导因子分析。【结果】当前气候条件下,薇甘菊在贵州的高适生区面积为1.51万km 2,占全省面积的8.60%,主要位于黔西南州和黔南州;在未来气候条件下,薇甘菊在贵州的适生区呈扩增状态,适生区分布中心坐标(26.43°N,107.00°E)由黔南州向贵阳市转移;影响薇甘菊适生范围的主导因子是年平均温度、昼夜温差平均值、温度季节性变化、最冷月份最低温、年降水量和最热季平均降水量。【结论】薇甘菊在贵州的适生区范围广,温度和降水是主要影响因素。在未来气候条件下,薇甘菊在贵州的适生区呈扩增状态,整体向北迁移扩散的趋势明显。

【Aim】Mikania micrantha is a highly invasive alien species.Populations of this invasive species have been repeatedly discovered in Guizhou Province between 2016 and 2022.We predicted the potentially suitable areas for M.micrantha in Guizhou and their changing patterns to provide a basis for establishing a control and prevention system against them.【Method】We identified 1001 global distribution sites for M.micrantha and combined them with data from 22 environmental factors.Using the maximum entropy model(MaxEnt),we predicted the potential distribution of M.micrantha under current and projected future climate conditions in Guizhou.A dominant-factor analysis was also conducted.【Result】Under current climatic conditions,the areas in Guizhou most suitable for M.micrantha cover approximately 1.51×104 km 2,representing 8.60%of the province′s area.These areas are predominantly located in Qianxinan and Qiannan Autonomous Prefectures.Under future climatic conditions,the suitable areas for M.micrantha growth in Guizhou are expected to increase.The center of this suitable distribution area(26.43°N,107.00°E)was predicted to shift from Qiannan Prefecture to Guiyang City.The dominant factors affecting the suitable range of M.micrantha included the annual mean temperature,mean diurnal range,temperature seasonality,minimum temperature of the coldest month,annual precipitation,and precipitation of the warmest quarter.【Conclusion】M.micrantha has a broad range of suitable habitats in Guizhou,with temperature and precipitation being the main influencing factors.Under future climatic conditions,the suitable areas for M.micrantha are projected to expand,exhibiting notable northward migration and dispersion trends.