依赖与摆脱依赖:欧洲能源的宿命——俄欧能源关系视角分析

Dependence and Escape from Dependence:Europe's Energy Fate-An Analysis in the Perspective of Russian-European Energy Relations

能源依赖一直是欧洲对外战略的短板。作为世界上最发达的工业中心,欧洲能源需求量一直都非常可观。囿于自身油气资源禀赋相对较弱,欧洲与世界主要能源供应区域中东、苏联/俄罗斯开展了一个多世纪的能源合作,形成了非对称的依赖关系,并不断萌生摆脱能源依赖这一“宿命”的想法,也经历了多次跌宕起伏的历程。美国实现能源独立后,为扩大天然气市场,不惜制造地缘政治紧张态势。俄乌冲突爆发后,俄欧能源脱钩,双方渐行渐远,欧洲开始重新倚重美国及中东地区的油气资源。然而,对欧洲而言,以下问题值得深思:摆脱俄罗斯是不是就真的摆脱了依赖?进口美国液化天然气是不是形成了一种新的依赖?欧洲发展可再生能源所需的关键金属会不会成为欧洲新的对外依赖?欧洲要不要摆脱这些依赖?如何才能真正改变“依赖与摆脱依赖的宿命”?本文通过对欧洲能源问题的系统研究,深度剖析了这几个问题,有助于深刻理解当前欧洲的能源困境。由于中国也是能源进口大国,转型进程与欧洲存在一定的相似性,本文也借此总结出对中国能源转型的启示。

"Energy dependence"has always been a weakness of Europe's external strategy.As the world's most developed industrial center,Europe's energy demand has always been quite substantial.Due to its relatively weak endowment of hydrocarbon resources,Europe has been engaged in energy cooperation with the world's major energy supply regions-the Middle East,the USSR/Russia-for more than a century has resulted in an asymmetric dependence and a growing desire to break away from the"destiny"of energy dependence.and it has also gone through a number of ups and downs.After the U.S.realized energy independence,it spared no effort to create geopolitical tensions in order to expand its natural gas market.After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,Russia and Europe decoupled on energy cooperation,the two sides drifted apart,and Europe began to rely on the United States and the Middle East's oil and gas resources.For Europe,however,the following questions are worth pondering:Does getting rid of Russia really mean getting rid of dependence?Are imports of U.S.liquefied natural gas creating a new dependency?Will the key green metals on which Europe's renewable energy development depends fall into the next new dependency?Does Europe want to get rid of these dependencies?How can it really change the fate of"dependence and escape from dependence"?This paper analyzes the above issues in depth through a systematic study of energy issues in Europe-which helps to deeply understand the current energy dilemma in Europe.At the same time,as China is also a major energy-importing country,its transition process is similar to that of Europe,we'll summarize the implications for China's energy transition with the help of this study.