欧盟天然气安全外部治理逻辑与实践成效:以“南部天然气走廊”国家为例

Analyzing the Logic and Effectiveness of External Governance for Gas Security in the European Union:The Case of the"Southern Gas Corridor"Countries

欧盟外部治理被界定为一种欧盟制度规范的外溢现象,目的是通过制度规范的输出,将现有的、隐藏的外部混乱以一种欧盟内部惯有的制度加以解决,从而降低风险。本文尝试运用欧盟外部治理的理论分析视角,选取俄乌冲突后重要性迅速提升的“南部天然气走廊”国家格鲁吉亚、土耳其和阿塞拜疆作为案例分析对象,通过剖析欧盟与这些国家的长期合作实践,发现在天然气能源领域,市场规模是欧盟借助市场力量进行对外制度输出的基础和模板,欧盟对“南部天然气走廊”国家采取双边、区域和全球不同层面的合作形式,同时双边、多边和辅助等多种政策工具并举、全方位进行范式输出,依靠外部治理谋求自身天然气能源安全。基于欧盟奖励措施实施的规模和速度、规则的确定性、承诺的可信性以及第三方国家采纳欧盟规则所付出的成本规模等现实主义因素的考量,更重要的是由于宗教、历史文化传统及建立在其上的经济和社会治理模式存在较大差异,欧盟在这几个国家外部治理的成效存在显著差异,局限性凸显。但未来欧盟外部能源治理的基本逻辑不会改变,当遭遇复杂世界里的多元目标对象时,其局限性也难以突破。

EU external governance is defined as a spillover phenomenon of EU institutional norms,aiming at reducing risks by exporting institutional norms and solving the existing and hidden external chaos with a system customary within the EU.This paper tries to apply the theoretical perspective of the EU's external governance,and selects Georgia,Turkey and Azerbaijan,the countries of the Southern Gas Corridor,which have rapidly increased in significance after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict,as case study objects.By analysing the long-term cooperation practice between the EU and these countries,it is found that in the field of natural gas energy,market scale is the basis and template for the EU's market power to export its external system,and the EU has adopted different forms of cooperation at bilateral,regional and global levels with the countries of the"Southern Gas Corridor",and at the same time,exported its paradigm in an all-rounded way with a variety of policy instruments,such as bilateral,multilateral and auxiliary,and relied on external governance to seek its own natural gas energy security.At the same time,a variety of policy instruments,such as bilateral,multilateral and complementary,have been used in an all-round way to export the paradigm,relying on external governance to seek its own gas energy security.This is not only due to the scale and speed of implementation of EU incentives.This is due not only to realist considerations such as the scale and speed of implementation of EU incentives,the certainty of the rules,the credibility of the commitments,and the scale of the costs of adopting EU rules in third-party countries,but also,and more importantly,to the fact that the effectiveness of the EU's external governance of these countries varies significantly due to the large differences in religions,historical and cultural traditions,and in the models of economic and social governance upon which they are built.The limitations are obvious.However,the basic logic of the EU's external energy governance will remain unchanged in the future,and its limitations will be difficult to break through when confronted with multiple targets in a complex world.