西安城市轨道交通运营碳排放预测与减碳目标研究

Carbon Emission Predictions and Carbon Reduction Targets of Xi’an Urban Rail Transit Operations

为了解决城市轨道交通线网未来运营碳排放量与减碳目标不明确的问题,基于2018—2022年西安城轨交通运营能耗的统计分析,采用碳排放因子法对过去5年运营碳排放量进行核算;采用指标法对未来5年西安城轨交通运营能耗进行预测,并得到碳排放量的预测值;依据《中国城市轨道交通绿色城轨发展行动方案》提出的综合能耗强度约束性要求,对未来5年西安城轨交通运营节能总量目标进行量化分析,进而确定碳排放总量需达到的约束值与减碳量目标值。研究表明:2018—2022年,西安城轨交通运营产生的碳排放约175.9×10^(4) tCO_(2)e,在此情景下估算未来5年城轨交通运营预计将产生的碳排放约321.6×10^(4) tCO_(2)e,其中以牵引与车站电耗产生的间接碳排放为主要来源。若达到城轨行业协会提出的综合能耗强度下降目标,经估算与预测碳排放量相比,2025年全线网运营碳排放量预计可减少约13%,2027年全线网运营碳排放量预计可减少约15%;未来5年预计共减少碳排放量约10%。

To address uncertainties in future operational carbon emissions and carbon reduction targets for urban rail transit networks,this study analyzes operational energy consumption data for the Xi’an urban rail transit system from 2018 to 2022.The carbon emission factor method is employed to calculate operational carbon emissions for the past five years.The index method is then used to predict energy consumption and carbon emissions for the next five years.Based on the binding energy intensity requirements outlined in China’s Action Plan for Green Urban Rail Development,we quantitatively analyze the total energy saving target for Xi’an’s urban rail transit operations over the next five years.Subsequently,the total carbon emission constraint and carbon reduction target are determined.The research results indicate that approximately 175.9×10^(4) tCO_(2)e of total carbon emissions were generated during the operation of the Xi’an urban rail transit system from 2018 to 2022.Under these conditions,it is expected that approximately 321.6×10^(4) tCO_(2)e of total carbon emissions will be generated over the next five years of operations,with traction and station power consumption being the main sources of carbon emissions.If the comprehensive energy intensity reduction target proposed by the association is achieved,compared with the predicted carbon emissions,the carbon emissions of the entire network are expected to reduce by approximately 13%by 2025;the carbon emissions of the entire network are expected to reduce by approximately 15%by 2027;and in total,carbon emissions are expected to reduce by approximately 10%over the next five years.