2023年我国合成橡胶产业链回顾与2024年展望

Synthetic Rubber Market:2023 Review and 2024 Prospect

2023年,我国合成橡胶产能持续增加、需求恢复,行业整体运行情况有所改善。我国汽车行业产销突破3000万辆大关,汽车行业产销和出口的积极态势加速下游轮胎企业的去库节奏,轮胎企业开工率有所回升,对合成橡胶需求形成支撑。丁二烯下游丙烯腈–丁二烯–苯乙烯三元共聚物(ABS)装置投产与合成橡胶竞争原料,非一体化企业面临较大的成本风险。2024年将是本轮合成橡胶扩张周期的投产高峰,但放量节奏较慢,利空作用不显著;而我国汽车销量放缓,合成橡胶需求侧支撑转弱,产业链利润仍偏向丁二烯。

In 2023,with increasing production and restored demand,the overall situation of China's synthetic rubber industry has improved.China's automobile production and sales have broke through the 30-million mark in 2023.With the positive trend of domestic production and foreign exports in the automobile industry,tire companies'stock turnover accelerated and the operating rate picked up,supporting the demand for synthetic rubber.With ABS units put into production,synthetic rubber faced fierce competition for butadiene as raw material,and non-integrated factories encountered greater cost risk.The year 2024 will witness the peak of this expansion cycle of synthetic rubber,while the release rate is slow and the negative effect is not significant.China's automobile industry has insufficient stamina,the demand side support of synthetic rubber has weakened,and the profit of the industrial chain is still biased towards butadiene.