东道国舆论环境与海外进入模式选择——基于海量媒体数据的定量考察

The Host Country's Public Opinion Environment and Overseas Entry Mode Choice:A Quantitative Examination Based on Massive Media Data

逆全球化背景下日趋复杂的东道国舆论环境给我国国际化进程带来严峻挑战,对其如何影响跨国企业进入国际市场的关键决策还缺乏系统的实证检验。基于情感分析技术和网络爬虫,对2015—2022年830余万条媒体报道进行文本分析,构建涉华舆情指数,系统分析与检验了东道国舆论环境对中国企业海外进入模式选择的影响。研究发现,东道国舆论环境越差,相比于独资模式,中国企业更倾向于选择合资模式进入海外市场;相比于跨国并购,中国企业更倾向于选择绿地投资进入海外市场;跨国企业的产权性质和国际化经验起到正向调节作用。在影响机制方面,东道国舆论环境通过影响企业的规制、规范和认知合法性来影响跨国企业投资设立模式的选择。本文的研究结论为跨国企业恰当地选择海外市场进入模式、积极规避或弱化舆论风险,更好地在东道国投资布局与经营发展提供对策建议。

In the context of increasing deglobalization trends,the evolving and intricate host country media landscape presents formidable challenges to the internationalization process of China.The crucial decisions regarding how this environment affects the entry strategies of multinational enterprises into international markets lack systematic empirical validation.Leveraging sentiment analysis technology and web crawling techniques,conducting textual analysis on over 8.3 million discourse items related to China from the period 2015 to 2022,constructing a China-related public sentiment index and systematically examined the impact of the host country media environment on the entry mode selection of Chinese enterprises operating abroad.The research findings reveal that as the host country media environment deteriorates,Chinese enterprises are more inclined to opt for joint venture models over wholly-owned subsidiaries when entering international markets.Furthermore,compared to cross-border mergers and acquisitions,Chinese enterprises exhibit a stronger inclination toward greenfield investments as their entry strategy.The ownership structure of multinational enterprises and their internationalization experience exert a positive moderating effect on these relationships.In terms of the underlying mechanisms,the host country media environment influences the choice of investment mode by affecting the regulatory,normative,and cognitive legitimacy of enterprises.The conclusions provide valuable recommendations for multinational enterprises to appropriately select their entry modes into international markets,actively mitigate or reduce reputational risks,and enhance their investment and operational strategies in host countries.