上游行业进口中间品对企业出口韧性的影响——基于中国企业数据的分析

Research on the Effects of Upstream Import Intermediary Goods on Export Resilience:Based on Chinese Enterprises Data

在中国出口形势日益严峻的背景下,如何增强企业出口韧性成为重要的课题。基于中国工业企业数据库和海关贸易数据库的匹配数据,以2008年金融危机为外生冲击,本文将企业出口韧性划分为抵抗力和恢复力两方面,研究上游行业进口中间品对企业出口韧性的影响路径。结果表明:上游行业进口中间品会显著增强下游企业出口韧性,该结论经过一系列检验仍然稳健;从作用机制来看,上游行业进口中间品可以通过出口升级效应和成本降低效应提高企业出口韧性。考虑企业异质性发现,上游行业进口中间品对企业出口韧性的促进作用在抵抗期对中小规模企业、国有企业的影响更显著;在经济抵抗期和恢复调整期,上游行业进口中间品对东部地区企业、加工贸易为主企业的出口韧性的促进作用更显著。此外,通过进一步研究发现,国内上游行业垄断和市场分割会削弱上游行业进口中间品对下游企业出口韧性的提升效果。

Against the increasingly severe export situation of Chinese enterprises,how to enhance their export resilience has become an important issue.Based on the matching data between the industrial enterprise database and the customs trade database,and taking the 2008 financial crisis as the research background,this article defines the export resilience of enterprises as two aspects:resistance and recovery,and considers the impact of imported intermediate goods from upstream industries on the export resilience of downstream enterprises.After empirical analysis,the results indicate that importing intermediate goods from upstream industries will significantly enhance the export resilience of downstream enterprises,and this conclusion is still robust after a series of method tests.From the perspective of mechanism testing,the import of intermediate goods from upstream industries can enhance the export resilience of enterprises by improving the quality of downstream enterprises’export products,enhancing the complexity of export technology,and reducing costs.Heterogeneity analysis suggests that the promotion effect of imported intermediate goods from upstream industries on the export resilience of downstream enterprises is more significant in the eastern region and small and medium-sized enterprises.Both general trade and processing trade importing intermediate goods can help enterprises enhance their ability to resist risks,but processing trade importing intermediate goods has a more significant promoting effect on enterprises’recovery of export levels.In addition,further research suggests that domestic upstream industry monopolies and domestic market segmentation can weaken the promoting effect of upstream industry imports of intermediate goods on the export resilience of downstream enterprises.