黄河流域五大增长极碳排放脱钩效应——基于GDIM的因素分解

Analysis of carbon emission decoupling effects in the five growth poles of the Yellow River Basin based on GDIM decomposition

基于省级能源平衡表,采用自上而下估算方法对2007~2020年黄河流域五大增长极的碳排放量进行测算;运用拓展的广义迪氏指数分解法(GDIM)对五大增长极碳排放的驱动因素进行分解;将GDIM分解法与传统脱钩模型相结合,构建新的脱钩指数模型,并对五大增长极碳排放的脱钩效应进行深入研究,科学量化各因素的脱钩贡献.结果显示,黄河流域五大增长极碳排放总量呈先增长后下降趋势,而五大增长极的碳强度普遍呈下降趋势,降幅均超过63%;各因素对五大增长极碳排放的影响程度存在显著差异,技术规模和产出规模是导致碳排放增加的主要因素,技术碳强度是抑制碳排放增加的首要因素,能源消耗碳强度和能源强度对未来碳排放的减少具有较大潜力;除2015~2020年黄河“几”字弯都市圈未实现脱钩效应外,其余阶段五大增长极均取得了一定的脱钩成效,尤其在2010~2015年山东半岛城市群实现了强脱钩效应,脱钩指标值达到1.6126;技术碳强度和产出碳强度是决定五大增长极碳排放脱钩的主导因素.据此提出制定因地制宜的碳减排政策,加大对低碳技术的研发和应用支持力度,持续优化能源结构的政策举措.

Based on provincial-level energy balance sheets,a top-down estimation method was adopted to calculate the carbon emissions of the five major growth poles in the Yellow River Basin from 2007 to 2020.The expanded generalized Divisia index decomposition method(GDIM)was utilized to decompose the driving factors of carbon emissions in the five major growth poles.Combining the GDIM decomposition method with the traditional decoupling model,a new decoupling index model was constructed to deeply investigate the decoupling effects of carbon emissions in the five major growth poles,scientifically quantifying the decoupling contributions of various factors.The results indicated that the total carbon emissions in the five major growth poles of the Yellow River Basin showed a trend of initial growth followed by a decline,while the carbon intensity in the five major growth poles generally exhibited a decreasing trend,with a reduction exceeding 63%.The impact of various factors on carbon emissions in the five major growth poles varied significantly.Technological scale and output scale were the main factors causing carbon emissions to increase,while technological carbon intensity was the primary factor inhibiting the increase in carbon emissions.Energy consumption carbon intensity and energy intensity had significant potential for reducing future carbon emissions.Except for the"Ji"-shaped metropolitan area in the Yellow River Basin from 2015 to 2020,which did not achieve decoupling,the other stages saw some decoupling achievements in the five major growth poles.Notably,the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration exhibited a strong decoupling effect from 2010 to 2015,with a decoupling index value reaching 1.6126.Technological carbon intensity and output carbon intensity were the dominant factors determining decoupling of carbon emissions in the five major growth poles.Drawing from these findings,the following policy measures were proposed:formulating tailored carbon emission reduction policies,intensifying support for the research and application of low-carbon technologies,and continuously optimizing the energy structure.