美国国债的嚣张特权与新时代的中国选择

The Exorbitant Privilege of US Treasuries and China’s Choice in the New Era

1971年美元与黄金脱钩后,美国国债取代黄金成为国际货币体系的价值基准,获得了嚣张的特权。之后,美国国债总额呈现指数型扩张趋势,不再有实质性约束,所谓债务上限只是党争游戏,而非美国财政的硬约束。只要国际货币体系不发生根本性变革,美国国债的国际信用就长期稳固,其规模的无穷膨胀趋势就是可持续的,大规模量化宽松政策也未能对其产生实质性动摇,所谓全球投资者抛售美国国债是一种错觉而非事实。美国国债的嚣张特权赋予美国联邦政府以“借债自由”,让全球金融危机中的金融部门免受应有的惩罚,并帮助美国在全球资本循环中获取超额收益。在资本和经常项目“双顺差”时代,为扶持东南沿海的出口制造部门,中国长期将人民币汇率维持在低位,因而积累了以美国国债为主的巨额外汇储备,到如今这一做法已不再必要,不仅收益率低,还面临着巨大的安全风险。

After the decoupling of the US dollar from gold in 1971,US Treasuries replaced gold as the value benchmark of the international monetary system and acquired an exorbitant privilege.Subsequently,the total amount of US debt exhibited an exponential expansion trend,unbound by any substantial constraints.The so-called debt ceiling is merely a partisan game rather than a rigid fiscal constraint on the United States.As long as there are no fundamental changes in the international monetary system,the international credit of US Treasuries remains long-term stable,and its trend of infinite expansion is sustainable.Massive quantitative easing policies have failed to significantly shake this stability,and the notion of global investors offloading US Treasuries is more illusion than fact.The exorbitant privilege of US Treasuries grants the federal government the“freedom to borrow,”shielding the financial sector from deserved penalties during global financial crises and securing excessive returns in the global capital cycle.In the era of“twin surpluses”in capital and current accounts,China maintained a low exchange rate for the Renminbi to support its export manufacturing sector along the Southeast coast.As a result,China has accumulated huge foreign exchange reserves,mainly US Treasuries.This practice is unnecessary,yielding low returns and posing significant security risks.