环渤海地区环境规制强度与土地利用净碳排放量耦合协调的时空格局演化分析

Evolutionary Analysis of the Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Coupled Coordination between Environmental Regulation Intensity and Net Carbon Emissions from Land Use in the Bohai Rim Region

环渤海地区是我国减排降碳的重点区域。基于2005—2020年环渤海地区3省2市共43个城市土地利用与城市面板数据,分析环境规制强度与土地利用净碳排放的时空格局演变特征及其耦合协调情况,并进一步探究影响该地区净碳排放的主要驱动因素。结果表明:(1)环渤海地区环境规制与净碳排放量耦合程度不高,环境规制的增强滞后于区域净碳排放量的增长,环境规制对地区净碳排放的约束性不强。(2)净碳排放量与环境规制强度均呈现中部高、北部低的空间分布格局,这与各城市职能定位相符,北部地区作为重要的“生态长城”,高能耗高污染企业鲜有分布。(3)环境规制有效地遏制环渤海地区净碳排放,通过分析发现,环境规制强度、经济活动、能源消耗强度、产业结构与科技投入是影响环渤海地区净碳排放量差异的主要驱动因素。

The Bohai Rim region is a pivotal area for China s carbon emission reduction efforts.Based on land use and urban panel data from 43 cities in 3 provinces and 2 cities in the Bohai Rim from 2005 to 2020,this paper analyzes the spatial and temporal evolution of the coupling and coordination between environmental regulation intensity and net carbon emissions from land use,and also explores the main driving factors affecting net carbon emissions in the region.The results show that:(1)the degree of coupling between environmental regulations and net carbon emissions in the Bohai Rim region is relatively low,the enhancement of environmental regulations lags behind the growth of regional net carbon emissions,and their constraint of environmental regulations on regional net carbon emissions is weak;(2)the spatial distribution pattern of net carbon emissions and environmental regulation intensity is higher in the central areas and lower in the north,aligning with the functional positioning of the cities,while the northern region,known as the“Great Ecological Wall”,has a sparse distribution of high-energy-consuming and high-polluting enterprises;(3)effective environmental regulations in the Bohai Rim region have significantly curbed net carbon emissions.The analysis identifies the intensity of environmental regulations,economic activities,intensity of energy consumption,industrial structure,scientific and technological investment as the main driving factors affecting the differences in net carbon emissions across the region.