基于前景理论的绿色建筑供需主体演化博弈分析

An Evolutionary Game Analysis of Green Building Supply and Demand Subjects Based on Prospect Theory

为了促进绿色建筑市场供需双方的交易,系统考虑政府激励等客观条件及主体行为特征对其决策的影响,结合前景理论和演化博弈理论构建开发商开发行为和消费者购买行为的两方博弈模型,通过数理推导和数值仿真揭示了各类因素对绿色建筑发展的影响机理。研究表明:随着供应商绿色水平的提高,不同转型能力的开发商开发绿色建筑的概率越大;消费者可接受的绿色建筑溢价会随着消费者绿色偏好的增加而增加;政府应根据供需市场环境灵活调整对开发商和消费者的补贴;主体对选择绿色建筑时带来的增量收益表现得越理性、损失风险偏好越大,越趋向选择绿色建筑。

In order to promote the transaction between the supply and demand sides of green buildings,this study systematically considers the influence of the objective environment such as government incentives and the behavioural characteristics of the subject on their decisions.Prospect theory and evolutionary game theory are combined to build a two-sided game model of developer development behaviour and consumer purchase behaviour.The influence mechanism of various factors on the development of green buildings through mathematical derivation and numerical simulation are revealed.The study shows that:as the green level of suppliers increases,there comes the greater the probability that developers with different transformation capabilities will develop green buildings:the acceptable green building premium for consumers will increase with the increase of consumers'green preferences;the Government should flexibly adjust the subsidies for developers and consumers according to the supply and demand market environment;the more rational the subject behaves towards the incremental benefits brought when choosing green buildings,the greater the risk of loss preference,the more they tend to choose green buildings.