双优势导向的重大工程复杂性评价研究

Evaluation of Megaproject Complexity Based on Dual Strengths

规模巨大和结构复杂的重大工程常常存在项目管理失败风险,当前研究存在缺口。采用凯利方格技术和扎根理论方法,确定了重大工程复杂性测量的评价指标体系,用权重刻画优势特征,构建了体现重大工程整体和子工程个体的双优势评价方法,以港珠澳大桥岛隧工程项目为例验证方法的科学性和有效性。结果显示,可以从管理、目标、条件、机制和技术5个维度衡量重大工程的复杂性;通过线性加权方式聚合个体和整体权重向量,识别出案例中技术开发子工程需要重点关注。据此,从重大工程项目短期和长期两个方面给出管理启示。

The risk of project management failure often exists in large-scale and complex megaprojects,and there is a gap in the current research.This paper determines the evaluation index system of complexity measurement of megaprojects using the Kelly Repertory Grid Technique and the grounded method,describes the dominant characteristics with weights,and constructs a double dominant evaluation method reflecting the overall and sub-projects of major projects.The Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge Island Tunnel Project is used as a case example for analysis.In the case study,the science and effectiveness of the method are verified.The results show that the complexity of megaprojects can be measured from five dimensions:management,objectives,conditions,mechanism,and technology.The individual and overall weight vectors are aggregated by linear weighting,and the key attention of the technology development sub-project in the case is identified.Therefore,management enlightenment is given from the short-term and long-term aspects of major engineering project management.