基于SPI的1961—2020年昌吉地区作物生长季气象干旱时空特征研究

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Meteorological Drought Based on SPI during Crop Growing Season in Changji from 1961 to 2020

基于昌吉地区1961—2020年的气象资料分析作物生长季标准化降水指数(SPI-7)的年际和年代际变化特征,揭示作物生长季干旱发生频率和强度。结果表明:1961—2020年昌吉地区作物生长季水分呈增加趋势,标准化降水指数以0.08/10 a的速率增加。气象干旱呈干—湿—干的年代际变化趋势,其中在1981年发生突变。干旱强度呈增加趋势,干旱发生面积呈弱减少趋势。东部地区是干旱高发区,但以轻旱为主;西部地区则是中旱、重旱和特旱高发区。昌吉地区的气象干旱存在6、9、16 a的周期震荡,与历史灾情具有很好的吻合性。

Based on meteorological data from 1961 to 2020 in Changji,the interannual and decadal variation characteristics of the standardized precipitation index(SPI-7)were analyzed,to reveal the frequency and intensity of drought occurrence during the crop growth season.The results show that,the water content showed an increasing trend from 1961 to 2020,with a standardized precipitation index increasing at a rate of 0.08/10 a.The meteorological drought showed an inter-decadal trend of dry-wet-dry,with a sudden change occurring in 1981.The intensity of drought was increasing,and the area of drought occurrence was weakly decreasing.There was a high incidence area of drought in the eastern region,and mainly characterized by mild drought.The western region was a high incidence area of moderate drought,severe drought,and extreme drought.The meteorological drought had periodic oscillations of 6,9,and 16 years in Changji,which was in good agreement with historical disasters.The research results provide a basis for crop drought monitoring and warning in Changji.