天然气消费重回增长长行业发展面临新挑战——2023年天然气发展形势与政策分析及2024年展望

Natural Gas Consumption has Returned to Growth,while the Industry Faces New Challenges——Review of Natural Gas Industry and Policy in 2023 and Prospect of 2024

2023年国际上关于天然气是否清洁低碳、在能源转型过程中如何定位、是否应支持其发展的争论不断出现,为行业发展前景增添了不确定性。地缘冲击和欧洲能源危机的影响逐步消退,国际气价回落,重回供需主导。“十四五”以来,我国能源形势发生重大变化,政策动态调整,对天然气行业具有三方面影响。甲烷控排、天然气利用、油气体制改革等多项政策出台。天然气消费止跌回升,供应保障能力提升,供需总体平衡。展望2024年,国际天然气市场将恢复增长,新增供应的不确定性有望支撑气价;国内新建LNG接收站将集中投产,天然气发展面临新挑战。

In 2023,continuous debates internationally further added uncertainties to the development prospects of natural gas(NG)industry,most of which focusing on whether NG is clean and low-carbon,how to position it in the process of energy transformation,and whether the increasing investment should be supported.In global market,the impact of geopolitical events and the European energy crisis was gradually fading,and therefore international gas prices were falling,returning to supply-demand dominance.In China,there have been significant changes in the energy situation since 2021 and therefore great policy adjustments were made,which would bring three impacts on NG industry.Multiple policies have been introduced,including methane emission control,NG utilization,and oil and gas system reform.NG consumption has resumed growth,supply capacity has improved,and overall supply-demand balance has been achieved.For 2024,the international gas market will resume growth,and gas prices will be supported by the uncertainty of the upcoming supply;the newly built LNG stations in China will be put into operation,and meanwhile new challenges of NG industry will need to be handled.