基于能耗强度控制的用能预算管理研究

Research on Energy Budget Management based on Controlling Energy Intensity of GDP

建立用能预算管理制度,对于完善能源消费总量和强度调控,推动能耗双控逐步转向碳排放双控具有重要意义。本文以江西省为研究对象,通过梳理回顾“十一五”以来全省能耗双控工作情况,分析能耗双控工作存在的短板和面临的挑战,进而提出了用能预算全流程管理框架设想,建立了能耗强度控制目标分解模型和年度用能预算控制预测模型。研究表明,非工业领域能耗增长、居民生活用能增长和经济增长存在极其显著的统计回归关系,工业领域能耗增长可通过项目节能审查进行合理预估,合理量化节能审查工作对未来能耗双控形势的影响,对建立健全地方用能预算管理制度至关重要。在此基础上,本研究提出合理分解能耗双控目标、强化节能监督检查闭环管理、加强能耗在线监测体系和能力建设、探索完善用能预算管理的不确定分析等措施建议,为进一步完善用能预算管理和能耗双控制度提供参考。

It is of great significance to improve the regulation of total energy consumption and intensity of GDP,and promote the dual control of energy consumption to gradually shift to the dual control of carbon emissions.Taking Jiangxi Province as the research object,this paper analyzes the shortcomings and challenges of the dual control of energy consumption by combing and reviewing the work of the dual control of energy consumption in the province since the 1lth Five-Year Plan period,and then puts forward the idea of the whole process management framework of energy budget,establishes the decomposition model of energy intensity control target and the prediction model of annual energy budget control.The research shows that there is an extremely significant statistical regression relationship between the growth of energy consumption in the non-industrial field and the growth of residential energy consumption and economic growth.The growth of energy consumption in the industrial field can be reasonably estimated through the project energy-saving review.It is very important to establish and improve the local energy budget management system to reasonably quantify the impact of energy-saving review on the future energy consumption dual control situation.On this basis,the paper puts forward some policy suggestions,such as reasonably decomposing the dual control target of energy consumption,strengthening the closed-loop management of energy conservation supervision and inspection,actively constructing online monitoring system and capacity of energy consumption,and exploring and improving the uncertainty analysis of energy budget management,so as to provide reference for further improving the energy budget management and energy consumption dual control monitoring system.