摘要
为揭示中国粮食生产生态效率水平及变化特征,基于超效率SBM模型对30个省份2000—2021年粮食生态效率进行估算,通过非参数核密度分析揭示其演进特征,进而通过固定效应模型分析其影响因素。结果表明:从粮食生态效率水平来看,2000—2021年中国粮食生态效率由0.662上升至0.787,年平均增长0.827%。主产区和产销平衡区粮食生态效率的变动趋势与全国层面相近,主销区则远低于全国平均水平;从时空格局演变来看,中国粮食生态效率长期存在高-高集聚、低-低集聚的两极分化现象,且随着时间推移逐渐向较高水平一侧集聚,呈现出北方高于南方、粮食主产区高于粮食非主产区的特征;在各影响因素中,人均GDP、粮食经营规模的影响显著为正,化肥施用强度、农业机械强度和自然灾害的影响显著为负。研究表明,中国粮食生态效率总体水平仍较低且区域差距较大,多数省份未达到效率前沿面,存在较大的提升空间。
To reveal the level and variation characteristics of China′s grain production eco-efficiency,this paper estimates the grain eco-efficiency of 30 provinces from 2000 to 2021 based on the super-efficiency SBM model,reveals its evolution characteristics through non-parametric kernel density analysis,and analyzes its influencing factors through fixed effect model.The results show that:from the perspective of grain eco-efficiency level,China′s grain eco-efficiency increased from 0.662 to 0.787 from 2000 to 2021,with an average annual increase of 0.827%.The change trend of grain eco-efficiency in the main production area and the production and marketing balance area is similar to the national level,while the main sales area is far lower than the national average;from the perspective of the evolution of spatial and temporal patterns,China′s grain eco-efficiency has long been polarized between high-high agglomeration and low-low agglomeration,and has gradually gathered to a higher level over time,showing the characteristics that the north is higher than the south,and the major producing areas are higher than the non-main producing areas.Among the influencing factors,the influence of per capita GDP and grain operation scale is significantly positive,and the influence of chemical fertilizer application intensity,agricultural machinery intensity and natural disasters is significantly negative.The research shows that the overall level of China′s grain eco-efficiency is still low and the regional gap is large.Most provinces have not reached the efficiency frontier,and there is a large room for improvement.
作者
王帅
王亚静
方正
吕昊泉
刘璐
WANG Shuai;WANG Yajing;FANG Zheng;LÜHaoquan;LIU Lu(Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,CAAS,Beijing 100081,China;Administrative Committee of High-tech Industrial Park of Zhucheng City in Shandong Province,Zhucheng 262200,China)
出处
《农业资源与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第3期706-716,共11页
Journal of Agricultural Resources and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41771569)。
关键词
粮食生产
粮食生态效率
时空格局
非参数核密度估计
grain production
grain eco-efficiency
space-time pattern
nonparametric Kernel density estimation