中国阿尔泰山冰川变化脆弱性及适应能力影响因素分析

Analysis of glacier change vulnerability and influencing factors of adaptability in the Chinese Altai Mountains

冰川是冰冻圈重要的组成要素,作为我国西部干旱区重要的淡水资源,冰川变化的脆弱性与区域社会经济发展密切相关。本文以中国阿尔泰山为例,基于遥感影像分析了1990—2020年间阿尔泰山冰川变化的特征,构建了阿尔泰山冰川变化脆弱性的评估框架和指标体系,分析得到2000—2020年阿尔泰山冰川变化脆弱性的时空演变格局,并利用障碍度模型深入探析了冰川变化适应能力的影响因素。研究结果表明,在1990—2020年的近30年间,我国阿尔泰山冰川的面积和储量均减小了约20%,且不同县市冰川面积变化率存在较大的差异,青河县冰川面积缩小率最大,达到73%,布尔津县的冰川面积缩小率最小,仅为18%。阿尔泰山冰川变化脆弱性随时间呈先缓慢下降、后加速上升的趋势,区域差异在不断下降。在空间分布上阿尔泰山西北部和东部地区冰川变化脆弱性中等偏高;西南部地区冰川变化脆弱性偏低;中部地区冰川变化脆弱性在全局范围内最低。适应能力的提升能有效降低阿尔泰山地区冰川变化的脆弱性,以2010年为分界点,阿尔泰山冰川变化适应能力在前期依赖于区域经济和水资源状况的提升和改善,在后期适应能力的提升向社会公共收入与投资以及公共服务质量倾斜明显,各县市适应能力提升途径更加多元且均衡。

Glacier is an important component of cryosphere.As an important fresh water resource in arid area of western China,the vulnerability of glacier change is closely related to regional social and economic development.Based on remote sensing images,this paper analyzed the characteristics of glacier change in the Chinese Altai Mountains from 1990 to 2020,constructed the evaluation framework and index system of glacier change vulnerability,demonstrated the temporal and spatial evolution pattern of glacier change vulnerability in the Chinese Altai Mountain from 2000 to 2020,and explored deeply the influencing factors of glacier change adaptability by using the obstacle degree model.The results showed that:(1)In the past 30 years from 1990 to 2020,the glacier area and volume in the Chinese Altai Mountains had decreased by about 20%,and there were significant differences in the change rate of glacier area in different counties and cities.The glacier area reduction rate in Qinghe was the largest,reaching 73%,while that in Burqin was the smallest,only 18%.(2)The glacier change vulnerability in the Chinese Altai Mountains decreased slowly at first and then experienced an accelerated increase over time,with the regional differences decreasing continuously.In spatial distribution,the glacier change vulnerability in the northwest and east was moderately high;the glacier change vulnerability in southwest was low;the vulnerability in central was the lowest.(3)The improvement of adaptability can effectively reduce the glacier change vulnerability in the Chinese Altai Mountains.Taking 2010 as the boundary,the glacier change adaptability in the Chinese Altai Mountains depended on the improvement of the regional economy and water resources in the early stage,and the improvement of adaptability in the later stage was significantly inclined towards social public income,investment,and public service quality.The ways to improve adaptability in counties and cities became more diversified and balanced.