基于DSR理论-综合云理论的中俄冻土区管道保温层效果失效类型研究

Study on the type of failure of the effect of pipeline insulation measures in the permafrost regions of China and Russia based on the Driving force-State-Response theory integrated cloud theory

冻土区管道保温层效果与评价指标变化的随机性密切相关,以往冻土区管道保温层效果评价模型存在一定的局限性与不足。为了提升冻土区管道保温层效果模型的应用效果,本文基于驱动力-状态-响应(Driving force-State-Response,DSR)理论、综合云理论和迭代运算方法相结合的综合评价方法,构建适用于中俄冻土区管道保温层效果的评价模型。为了验证冻土区管道保温层效果评价模型的科学性,以中俄管道沿线(漠河—大庆段)四处典型监测区域MDX007、MDX113、MDX304和MDX364为实例,应用评价模型对管道保温层效果的失效类型和失效可能性概率进行了综合分析。结果表明:运用评价模型可以科学指导中俄原油管道保温层效果的评估,并依据相应的保温层效果失效类型结果给出对应的措施建议。综合云模型能够结合不同理论模型的优势,保证冻土工程环境评价的科学性,通过置信度值验证,具有良好的应用前景。研究成果可为中俄原油管线安全稳定运营提供战略性的科学支撑。

The effect of pipeline insulation layer in permafrost area is closely related to the randomness of evaluation index changes,and the previous evaluation model of pipeline insulation layer effect in permafrost area has certain limitations and shortcomings.In order to improve the application effectiveness of insulation measures for pipelines in permafrost regions,based on the comprehensive evaluation method and combining the Driving force-State-Response(DSR)model theory,coefficient of variation weight theory and cloud model theory,in this paper a suitable comprehensive cloud model has been built for the evaluation of the thermal effect of insulated pipelines in permafrost regions.The DSR framework is used in the developed model to ensure the reliability of the index system.The weight of the index calculated by the coefficient of variation method ensures objectivity;the cloud model solves the randomness problem that cannot reflect the standard classification and index data acquisition of the environmental evaluation process of pipelines in permafrost regions.In order to validate the evaluation model of insulating effects for buried oil pipelines in permafrost regions,three representative monitoring sites at Kilometerage Posts MDX007,MDX113,MDX304 and MDX364 along the China-Russia Crude Oil Pipelines(Mo’he-Daqing Line or MDX)are taken as examples.The comprehensive cloud model is used for evaluating the thermal effect of pipeline insulation measures.The results show that the comprehensive modelbased analysis can effectively guide the implementation plan of insulation measures for Russian-Chinese Crude Oil Pipelines,and give corresponding measure suggestions based on the corresponding insulation effect failure types.Based on the evaluation results,the implementation plan of insulation measures for the China-Russia Crude Oil Pipelines is analyzed and advised for optimizing the thermal effect of insulative measures.The comprehensive cloud model can combine the advantages of different theoretical models to take into full account of the effectiveness and soundness of the comprehensive analysis of cold regions engineering environment evaluation,with a promising application potential.The research results can provide strategic scientific support for the safe and stable operation and sustainable development of China-Russia Crude Oil Pipelines.