基于均一化资料的南海沿海海表温度变化特征分析——以遮浪海洋监测站为例

Analysis of sea surface temperature change in the South China Sea based on homogenized observations:a case study at Zhelang station

采用加拿大环境部下属的气候研究中心所研发的惩罚最大T检验法并结合海洋监测站点的元数据信息,对南海沿岸的遮浪海洋监测站1961—2018年的海表温度(SST)序列进行均一化检验和订正,对该区域基于均一化订正之后的SST序列的气候年际和年代际变化特征进行了分析。结果表明:经均一化订正后的SST增温速率上升了0.05℃/10 a,由原来的0.12℃/10 a变为0.17℃/10 a,呈现显著的增暖趋势,表明非自然因素对月平均SST的影响导致了对该区域海水增温速率的低估。从年代际尺度上看,该地区1998年出现气候跃变,1998年之前遮浪海域的SST处于偏冷阶段,而1998年后出现短暂的停滞阶段,随后SST呈加速上升趋势,至今仍处于上升增暖阶段。

The Penalized Maximal T test method,developed by Climate Research Center of Environment Ministry of Canada,is used in this study to detect and adjust the observational sea surface temperature(SST)metadata obtained from 1961 to 2018 at the Zhelang marine station.We examine the climatic characteristics of the SST at the Zhelang station using the homogenized sea surface temperature dataset.The results show that the warming rate of SST increased from 0.12℃/10 a to 0.17℃/10 a by homogenization with an increment of 0.05℃/10 a,indicating that non-natural factors lead to the underestimation of monthly mean sea surface temper ature warming trend in this region.Besides,on decadal time scale there was a climate jump in this region around 1998.The SST at the Zhelang station was in a cold stage before 1998,thereafter the SST has undergone an increase after experiencing a short period of stagnation.