潍坊市畜禽粪污土地承载力时空分布特征分析

Analysis of temporal and spatial distribution features of land bearing capacity for livestock manure in Weifang City

为了科学评估潍坊市2012—2021年畜禽粪污土地承载力时空分布状况,准确评价畜禽养殖潜在环境风险状况,研究采用产排污系数法对潍坊市各县(市、区)2012—2021年畜禽粪污产生量、养分供给量、植物粪肥养分需求量及土地承载力指数等畜禽粪污土地承载力时空分布特征指标进行了分析。结果表明:潍坊市畜禽粪污土地承载力状况存在明显的时空分异特征。从时间上看,2012—2021年潍坊市各县(市、区)畜禽粪污产生量、养分供给量及植物粪肥养分需求量具有高度相似性,均呈现缓慢减少→稳定发展趋势。以氮、磷为基准的土地承载力指数(IN、IP)均呈现相对稳定趋势,其中IN均小于0.7,属于Ⅰ级,土地承载力有较大发展空间。除2017年外,其他年份IP均在0.7~1.0之间,属于Ⅱ级,土地承载力尚有发展空间。从空间上看,潍坊市各县(市、区)畜禽粪污产生量、养分供给量及植物粪肥养分需求量具有高度相似性,均呈现四周多中间少、东南和西北较多的分布特征。IN、IP存在一定差异,除临朐县外,其他县(市、区)IN平均值小于0.7,属于Ⅰ级,土地承载力有较大发展空间。临朐县IP平均值为1.59,属于Ⅳ级,存在明显超载情况;昌乐县、诸城市、高密市、昌邑市、安丘市、青州市IP平均值大于0.7,属于Ⅱ级,土地承载力尚有发展空间;其他县(市、区)IP平均值小于0.7,属于Ⅰ级,土地承载力有较大发展空间。说明潍坊市畜牧业有较大发展空间,应进一步优化养殖布局,调整种植结构,推动绿色养殖发展。

In order to scientifically evaluate the spatiotemporal distribution of livestock and poultry manure land bearing capacity in Weifang City from 2012 to 2021 and accurately evaluate the potential environmental risk status of livestock and poultry breeding,using the method of production and discharge coefficient,the paper studied the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of livestock and poultry manure production,nutrient supply,plant manure nutrient demand and land bearing capacity index of each county(city and district)in Weifang City from 2012 to 2021.The results showed that there were obvious spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics in the carrying capacity of livestock and poultry manure land in Weifang City.From the perspective of time,the amount of production,nutrient supply and nutrient demand of plant manure in various counties(cities and districts)of Weifang City from 2012 to 2021 were highly similar,showing a slow decrease→stable development trend.The land bearing capacity index based on nitrogen and phosphorus(IN and IP)showed a relatively stable trend,and the IN was less than 0.7,which belonged to theⅠlevel,indicating that there was a large space for development of land bearing capacity.Except for 2017,the IP in other years was between 0.7-1.0,which belonged to levelⅡ,and there was still room for development of land bearing capacity.From the spatial point of view,the livestock and poultry manure production,nutrient supply and plant manure nutrient demand in each county(city,district)of Weifang City were highly similar,and they all showed the distribution characteristics of more in the surrounding area and less in the middle area,and more in the southeast and northwest of the city.There were certain differences in IN and IP,except for Linqu County;the average value of IN in other counties(cities,districts)was less than 0.7,which belonged to levelⅠ,and there was a large space for development of land bearing capacity.The average IP value of Linqu County was 1.59,which belonged to levelⅣ,which was obvious overloaded.The average IP value of Changle County,Zhucheng City,Gaomi City,Changyi City,Anqiu City,and Qingzhou City was greater than 0.7,which belonged to levelⅡ,and there was still room for development of land bearing capacity;the average IP value of other counties(cities,districts)was less than 0.7,which belonged to levelⅠ,and there was a large space for development of land bearing capacity,indicating that Weifang City animal husbandry had a large space for development,and we should further optimize the breeding layout,adjust the planting structure,and promote the development of green breeding.