数字经济对碳排放强度的影响及其空间溢出效应分析

Analysis of the Impact of Digital Economy on Carbon Emission Intensity and Its Spatial Spillover Effects

考察数字经济对碳排放强度的影响,可以为我国“双碳”目标的实现提供经验证据。运用综合评价方法对2012—2021年我国各省份数字经济发展水平进行测算与分析,构建空间杜宾模型探究数字经济发展对碳排放强度的影响及其空间溢出效应。研究发现:2012—2021年,我国数字经济发展水平不断提高,但仍存在较大的区域差异,东部地区数字经济发展水平较高,中部地区次之,西部地区水平最低。数字经济发展有显著的碳减排效应,并且对本地区碳减排的溢出效应显著,对周边地区碳减排的溢出效应不显著。控制变量中,能源消费强度对本地区及周边地区碳排放强度的溢出效应均非常显著,能源消费结构和外贸依存度的直接溢出效应和总效应均显著,技术创新水平与环境规制的间接溢出效应显著。基于实证结果,建议积极发展数字经济,激发数字经济发展活力,推动高耗能、高污染产业进行数字化转型,以此实现碳减排和经济高质量发展双赢。

Empirical evidence for achieving China's dual carbon targets can be provided by examining the impact of the digital economy on carbon emission intensity.This paper uses the comprehensive evaluation method to calculate and analyze the level of digital economy development in China's provinces from 2012 to 2021,and further constructs a spatial Durbin model to explore the impact of digital economy development on carbon emission intensity and its spatial spillover effects.The results show that from 2012 to 2021,the level of digital economy development in China has been constantly improving,but there are still significant regional differences,with the level of digital economy development in the eastern region relatively higher,followed by the central region,and the lowest level in the western region.The development of the digital economy has a significant impact on carbon emission reduction,and the spillover effect on carbon emission reduction in the region is significant,but the spillover effect on carbon emission reduction in neighboring regions is not significant.Among the controlled variables,the spillover effect of energy consumption intensity on carbon emission intensity is very significant both in the region and in the neighboring regions.The direct spillover effects and the total effects of energy consumption structure and foreign trade dependence are significant,as are the indirect spillover effects of the level of technological innovation and environmental regulation.Based on the empirical results,it is recommended to actively develop the digital economy,activate the vitality of the development of the digital economy,and promote the digital transformation of high-energy-consuming and high-polluting industries,so as to achieve a win-win situation for carbon emission reduction and high-quality economic development.