中国区域经济韧性测量及影响因素分析

Measurement of China's Regional Economic Resilience and Analysis of Its Influencing Factors

基于2011—2021年中国省域面板数据,从经济、社会、生态、工程四个维度选取24个指标构建经济韧性评价指标体系,利用熵权-TOPSIS法、方差分解法对中国各省份的经济韧性进行测度,并测算东、中、西部地区不同维度的经济韧性贡献度,分析不同地区之间的经济韧性水平差异及影响因素。研究结果表明:各省份的经济韧性水平均有明显提升,但不同省份之间存在较大差异;在影响经济韧性的因素中,产业力、内源力、创新力、金融力的提升对经济韧性水平的提升具有促进作用,但也存在区域异质性。建议实施创新驱动发展战略,推动各地区的产业力与创新力互促共进,同时发挥各地区的比较优势,加强辐射,促进区域协调发展。

Based on China's provincial panel data from 2011 to 2021,24 indicators are selected from the dimensions of economy,society,ecology,and engineering to construct a system to measure the economic resilience of China's provinces.Entropy-weighted TOPSIS and variance decomposition methods are used to measure the economic resilience of China's provinces,calculate the contribution rates of different dimensions of the eastern,central and western regions,and analyze the differences in the level of economic resilience and the factors affecting it among the provinces.The results show that the level of economic resilience has improved significantly in all regions and that there is strong heterogeneity.Among the factors affecting economic resilience,the development of industrial strength,endogenous strength,innovation strength,and financial strength has a positive promoting effect,but there is regional heterogeneity.China should strengthen its talent and innovation development strategy,promote the mutual promotion and progress of industrial strength and innovation strength in all regions,and meanwhile make full use of the comparative advantages of each region,strengthen the radiating role,and promote coordinated regional development.