家庭因素对育龄群体生育的影响研究

Study on the Influence of Family Factors on Fertility of Childbearing Age Group

中国总和生育率长期低于更替水平,生育率持续下降是多种因素共同作用的结果,家庭各项因素在其中发挥着尤为重要的作用。文章基于2021年中国社会状况综合调查数据(CSS),利用泊松回归分析家庭因素对育龄群体生育行为的影响。研究发现:(1)家庭因素对育龄群体的生育行为产生了重要影响,其中家庭规模和家庭人均收入对育龄群体的生育行为产生显著负向影响,家庭住房面积和兄弟姊妹数量对育龄群体的生育行为产生显著正向影响;(2)家庭住房面积和兄弟姊妹数显著提升了育龄群体的生育意愿,并进一步显著促进该群体的生育行为,即生育意愿作为中介变量促进家庭住房面积和兄弟姊妹数对生育行为的影响;(3)通过分性别、户口和出生队列的分组回归发现,家庭因素对不同组别的育龄群体生育行为的影响存在显著的异质性,表现为家庭规模对女性育龄群体生育行为的负向影响更为显著;家庭规模和家庭人均收入对农业户口育龄群体生育行为的负向影响更为显著;家庭生育代际传递对生育行为的促进作用随出生队列增加而增强。基于此,从积极发挥家庭因素对育龄群体生育的正向效应,努力提升育龄群体的生育意愿,加强性别平等引导与宣传教育,缩小城乡家庭发展差距等方面提出促进生育率回升的若干建议。

China’s total fertility rate has been below the replacement level for a long time,and the continuous decline of fertility rate is the result of many factors,among which family factors play a particularly important role.Based on the data of China’s Comprehensive Survey of Social Conditions(CSS)in 2021,Poisson regression was used to analyze the influence of family factors on the reproductive behavior of the childbearing age group.The results show that:(1)family factors have an important impact on the reproductive behavior of the childbearing age group,in which family size and per capita income have a significant negative impact on the reproductive behavior of the childbearing age group,family hous⁃ing area and the number of siblings have a significant positive impact on the reproductive behavior of the childbearing age group;(2)The size of the family housing and the number of siblings significantly improve the reproductive intention of the childbearing age group,and further significantly promote the reproductive behavior of the group,that is,the repro⁃ductive intention as an intermediary variable promotes the influence of the size of the family housing and the number of siblings on reproductive behavior;(3)By grouping regression by gender,household registration and birth cohort,it is found that family factors have significant heterogeneity on reproductive behavior of different groups of childbearing age groups,and family size has a more significant negative impact on reproductive behavior of female childbearing age groups;The negative effects of family size and family per capita income on the reproductive behavior of the agricultural household registration group are more significant.The promotion effect of intergenerational transmission of family birth on reproductive behavior increased with the increase of birth cohort.Based on this,the paper puts forward some sugges⁃tions to promote fertility recovery from the aspects of actively exerting the positive effect of family factors on fertility of childbearing age groups,striving to enhance the fertility willingness of childbearing age groups,strengthening gender equality guidance and publicity and education,and narrowing the development gap between urban and rural families.