相识方式与婚姻稳定性——基于CFPS数据的事件史研究

The Way of Acquaintance and Marital Stability:An Event History Study Based on CFPS Data

中国离婚率的走高引起了社会各界的广泛关注,夫妻相识方式对婚姻稳定性的影响有待进一步探究。在当前自由恋爱式为主流的婚配背景下,学习和工作场域成为适婚个体在婚姻市场认识潜在对象最重要的两个场域,因此在学校或工作场所相识成为夫妻相识的主要方式。文章基于2010~2018年五期中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,采用事件史分析方法研究“学校相识”和“工作场所相识”两类相识方式对婚姻稳定性的影响。研究发现:(1)“学校相识”比“工作场所相识”的婚姻稳定性显著更高,前者的离婚风险约为后者的39.043%;(2)“工作场所相识”的离婚风险峰值出现更早,约在婚后7年,而“学校相识”的峰值出现在13年左右;(3)分教育程度看,高教育程度群体在“学校相识”比“工作场所相识”的婚姻稳定性更高,其中前者的离婚风险约为后者的45.611%,而低教育程度群体内不存在该差异;(4)分出生队列看,相识方式对婚姻稳定性的效用在不同出生队列组中均显著且比较稳健。在理论和实证分析基础上,文章呈现了夫妻不同相识方式对婚姻稳定性的影响,讨论集中于婚姻稳定性维度。然而,稳定的婚姻不一定是令人满意的、幸福的婚姻。因此,研究结论并不能代表“学校相识”或“工作场所相识”的婚姻幸福度,不应被视为鼓励寻求特定类别对象的证据。

The high divorce rate in China has attracted widespread attention from all walks of life,and the impact of couple acquaintance way on marital stability needs to be further explored.In the current context of free-love style as the mainstream of marriage matching,the study and workplace fields have become the two most important fields for marriage⁃able individuals to recognize potential partners in the marriage market,and thus meeting at school or workplace has be⁃come the main way for couples to meet each other.Based on the data from the 2010~2018 five-period China Family Panel Studies(CFPS),the article uses event history analysis to study the impact of the two types of acquaintance on mar⁃ital stability,namely,“acquaintance at school”and“acquaintance at workplace”.The study found that:(1)the marital stability of“acquaintance at school”is significantly higher than that of“acquaintance at workplace”,and the divorce risk of the former is about 39.043%of that of the latter;(2)The peak of divorce risk for“acquaintance at workplace”oc⁃curs earlier,about 7 years after marriage,while the peak for“acquaintance at school”occurs at about 13 years;(3)In terms of educational attainment,marital stability is higher in the“acquaintance at school”group than in the“acquain⁃tance at workplace”group,with the risk of divorce in the former being about 45.611%of that in the latter,while no such difference exists in the low-education group;(4)In terms of birth cohort,the utility of acquaintance way on marital sta⁃bility is significant and relatively robust across different birth cohort groups.Based on theoretical and empirical analyses,the article presents the effects of different ways of meeting couples on marital stability,and the discussion focuses on the dimension of marital stability.However,stable marriages are not necessarily satisfying and happy marriages.Therefore,the findings do not represent the level of marital well-being of“acquaintance at school”or“acquaintance at workplace”and should not be taken as evidence to encourage the search for specific categories of partners.