近60年淮河流域极端降水和极端温度时空变化特征

Spatio-temporal variations of extreme precipitation and extreme temperatureover the Huaihe River Basin during the past 60 years

基于1962—2019年间淮河流域149个站的气象数据,选择10个典型极端降水指标,12个极端温度指标,运用M-K趋势检验、相关性检验等方法,研究淮河流域降水和温度时空变化特征。结果表明:1)极端降水空间分布由东南向西北逐渐减小;时间序列上,多数极端降水指标呈微弱下降趋势,仅RX1day、CWD、R95P和R99P呈微弱上升趋势。2)极端温度空间分布上,多数极值指标自北向南逐渐升高,仅TXx自西向东逐渐降低;极端暖指标中SU25自西向东逐渐降低,TR20自北向南逐渐升高,其余指标分布规律不明显;极端冷指标中仅FD0、ID0自南向北逐渐升高;时间序列上,极值指标和极端暖指标呈上升趋势,极端冷指标呈下降趋势;极端冷指标下降的幅度高于极端暖指标增加的幅度,二者演变趋势对气候整体变暖的影响表现为同向一致性。3)极端降水指标与大部分极值指标、极端暖指标呈正相关;与大部分极端冷指标呈负相关。

Based on the daily temperature and precipitation data from 149 stations over the Huaihe River Basin from 1962 to 2019,10 extreme precipitation indexes and 12 extreme temperature indexes were selected to analyze the spatio-temporal variation features of precipitation and temperature by using Mann Kendall test,correlation test and so on.The results showed that:1)the spatial distribution of extreme precipitation gradually decreased from southeast to northwest.In terms of time series,most extreme precipitation indexes showed a slight downward trend,with only RX1day,CWD,R95P and R99P showing a weak upward trend.2)In terms of spatial distribution of extreme temperature,most extreme indexes showed a growing trend from north to south,while TXx displayed a gradual decrease from west to east.Among the extreme warm indexes,SU25 gradually decreased from west to east,TR20 gradually increased from north to south,while the distribution pattern of other indexes was not obvious.Among extreme cold indexes,FD0 and ID0 gradually increased from south to north.In terms of time series,the extreme indexes and extreme warm indexes showed an upward trend,while extreme cold indexes showed a downward trend.The decrease of extreme cold indexes was greater than the increase of extreme warm indexes,and the impact of their evolving tendency towards overall warming was observably consistent.3)The extreme precipitation indexes were positively correlated with most extreme indexes and extreme warm indexes,but negatively correlated with most extreme cold indexes.