黄河中下游城市土地绿色利用效率时空格局及其影响因素分析

Spatio-temporal pattern and attribution analysis of urban land green useefficiency in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yellow River

城市土地绿色利用是实现生态文明建设和“双碳”目标的有效途径,分析城市土地绿色利用效率及其影响因素,可以为城市建设和治理绿色转型提供借鉴。以黄河中下游60个城市为研究对象,采用非期望产出超效率SBM模型测算城市土地绿色利用效率,运用重心模型、随机森林模型、时空地理加权回归模型对其时空变迁和影响因素进行分析。结果表明:1)黄河中下游城市土地绿色利用效率在2001—2020年间呈现缓慢增长趋势,高效率城市明显增多;2)黄河中下游城市土地绿色利用效率重心呈现先向西再向东的移动趋势;3)社会结构、市场环境、经济发展对城市土地绿色利用重要性高,而政府投入和自然因素对其重要性相对较小;4)黄河中下游城市土地绿色利用效率各影响因素表现出明显的空间异质性。据此,黄河流域城市在促进区域协调和高质量发展过程中,要从人口集聚、对外开放、政府规制、产业结构等角度综合考虑,因地制宜制定差异化的政策,助推黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展。

Urban land green use is an effective approach to achieve ecological civilization construction and the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.Analyzing the urban land green use efficiency and its influencing factors can provide references for the green transformation of urban construction and governance.This study focuses on 60 cities in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River as the research objects.The model of undesirable output super-efficiency SBM is used to calculate the urban land green use efficiency.Furthermore,the gravity model,random forest model,and spatial and temporal geographic weighted regression model are employed to analyze its spatio-temporal changes and influencing factors.The results indicate that:1)The urban land green use efficiency in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River has shown a slow growth trend from 2000 to 2020,with a significant increase in high-efficiency cities.2)The gravity center of urban land green use efficiency shows a moving trend of shifting to westward and then eastward.3)Social structure,market environment,and economic development play a crucial role in the urban land green use efficiency,while government investment and natural factors have relatively less significance.4)The influencing factors of urban land green use efficiency exhibit obvious spatial heterogeneity.Therefore,in the process of promoting regional coordination and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin,it is necessary to comprehensively consider factors such as population concentration,openness,government regulations,and industrial structure.Tailored policies should be formulated according to local conditions to facilitate ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin.